It could be like marijuana – where you have tight rules but they don’t get enforced. And, after a while the rules become unenforceable. I’d hate to see us move in that direction. I’d prefer to have us face up to the fact that there’s a change needed here, and we would much prefer to work within the laws. But the point you raise is a very good one. There’s a heck of a lot of stuff you can do (using the spectrum) without getting caught.
Predictor: Baran, Paul
Prediction, in context:Paul Baran made the following statement in the question-and-answer session following a 1994 speech he made on 21st century communications: Questioner- “Why wait for regulatory change? If signals can sneak in and coexist on the bands, then no one else will really notice when you occupy an unused tiny slice of spectrum in the neighborhood. Baran- “Very good! Great idea!” Questioner- “It’s pretty radical!” Baran- “We’re getting to see some bootleg stations in the FM band. Once upon a time the FCC was very tough about it. But so much of this sort of stuff is going on that they’re sort of looking the other way. It could be like marijuana – where you have tight rules but they don’t get enforced. And, after a while the rules become unenforceable. I’d hate to see us move in that direction. I’d prefer to have us face up to the fact that there’s a change needed here, and we would much prefer to work within the laws. But the point you raise is a very good one. There’s a heck of a lot of stuff you can do (using the spectrum) without getting caught.”
Biography:Paul Baran joined RAND in 1959 and investigated development of survivable communication networks capable of allowing the U.S. to reorganise and respond after a nuclear attack. By 1964, he developed the field of packet-switching networks, as outlined in 11 comprehensive papers titled “On Distributed Communications Networks.” This work eventually convinced U.S. officials that development of wide-area digital computer networks should be a priority. Others also say they were working on packet switching in this era, but Baran and Donald Davies were generally given the credit at this point in the 1990s. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: November 9, 1994
Topic of prediction: Controversial Issues
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Keynote Talk Transcript, 8th Annual Conference on Next Generation Networks Washington, D.C.
Title, headline, chapter name: Visions of the 21st Century Communications: Is the Shortage of Radio Spectrum for Broadband Networks of the Future a Self-Made Problem?
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.eff.org/GII_NII/Wireless_cellular_radio/false_scarcity_baran_cngn94.transcript
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Beckett, Angela