One of the things we’ll undoubtedly recommend is that there be a war-gaming and concepts-development center formed at the joint level. The range of the weapon systems are such now that the geographical separation – the navy owning the sea area, and the army and air force owning the land areas – may make less sense than it used to.
Predictor: Marshall, Andrew
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Wired magazine, Peter Schwartz, co-founder and president of Global Business Network and author of “The Art of the Long View,” interviews Andrew Marshall, a national security researcher/consultant whose work included stints at the Rand think tank in 1949 and 22 years at the Pentagon, under six presidents. Schwartz quotes Marshall saying: ”For the last nine months, I’ve run a task force that’s trying to look at ways to foster innovation in the military … One of the things we’ll undoubtedly recommend is that there be a war-gaming and concepts-development center formed at the joint level. The range of the weapon systems are such now that the geographical separation – the navy owning the sea area, and the army and air force owning the land areas – may make less sense than it used to … Changing big organizations is hard. And the military has the extra difficulty in that it’s preparing to do something it doesn’t have a lot of good feedback on, because it doesn’t do its major task frequently. There’s not a bottom line every day.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Global Relationships/Politics
Subtopic: Peacekeeping/Warfare
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Warrior in the Age of Intelligent Machines: The Pentagon’s Resident Visionary, Andrew Marshall, Talks to Peter Schwartz About Why Everything You Know About War is Wrong
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.04/pentagon_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney