Twenty years ago, no publisher anticipated that teletype terminals would grow into a portable threat to books, that paper tapes would merge with film into multimedia CD-ROMs, or that telephones would threaten the whole business model of publishing by bringing the Web into your home. The difference in time between loony ideas and shipped products is shrinking so fast that it’s now, oh, about a week.
Predictor: Negroponte, Nicholas
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Wired magazine, Nicholas Negroponte, founder of MIT’s Media Lab, writes about the research being done there and shares his speculation for the future of bits: ”Bear in mind that 20 years ago, no publisher anticipated that teletype terminals would grow into a portable threat to books, that paper tapes would merge with film into multimedia CD-ROMs, or that telephones would threaten the whole business model of publishing by bringing the Web into your home. The difference in time between loony ideas and shipped products is shrinking so fast that it’s now, oh, about a week.”
Biography:Nicholas Negroponte, a co-founder of MIT’s Media Lab and a popular speaker and writer about technologies of the future, wrote one of the 1990s’ best-selling books about the new future of communications, “Being Digital.” (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: General, Overarching Remarks
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Wearable Computing: Bits Are as Insubstantial as the Ether, But They Tend to be Packaged in Hard Boxes. Hardware and Software Must Merge into Softwear
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.12/negroponte_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney