Control over information will be expressed not so much through government censorship but by commercial pressure. In some communities, access requirements for cable television separate the production of content from the ownership of broadcast stations, and common-carrier restrictions and universal access requirements apply to the control of the telephone system’s information products. Thus, the new media conglomerates use technology to outflank existing legal protections. Monopoly control over the single wire into the household enables these corporations to charge high-end access fees to shut out competition or content which is unwanted. Universal access will become very expensive.
Predictor: Monberg, John
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article for Computer-Mediated Communication magazine, John Monberg, a graduate student at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, writes: ”The tendency toward monopoly is already clear at this early stage of development in the industry. Although pitched as a competition of phone companies against cable companies against utilities, in reality the lines between industries have blurred. Every cable consortium is partnered with a telephone company, and an umbrella group linking all of the major cable systems has formed. Companies with information products – whether multi-media, video games, movies, syndicated television shows or news – merge with hardware manufacturers of the network, switching, production and distribution equipment. The phone company US West has made a $2.5 billion investment in Time Warner, which is spending $5 billion to upgrade its telecommunication infrastructure. Time had already combined its extensive magazine base with the movies and entertainment products of Warner Brothers and stakes in HBO, Turner Broadcasting, Hasbro toys and the Six Flags amusement parks. A takeover of NBC is under negotiation. Control over information will be expressed not so much through government censorship but by commercial pressure. In some communities, access requirements for cable television separate the production of content from the ownership of broadcast stations, and common-carrier restrictions and universal access requirements apply to the control of the telephone system’s information products. Thus, the new media conglomerates use technology to outflank existing legal protections. Monopoly control over the single wire into the household enables these corporations to charge high-end access fees to shut out competition or content which is unwanted. Universal access will become very expensive.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Role of Govt./Industry
Name of publication: Computer-Mediated Communication Magazine
Title, headline, chapter name: Welcome to the Emerald City! Please Ignore the Man Behind the Curtain
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.december.com/cmc/mag/1994/nov/emerald.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Walsh, Meghan