There is as yet not much sign of the “classroom revolution” taking place and the idea of human teachers being replaced by automated teaching machines still sounds just as fanciful as it always did.
Predictor: Forester, Tom
Prediction, in context:The 1997 book “Computers, Ethics, and Society,” edited by M. David Ermann, Mary B. Williams and Michele S. Shauf, carries the 1992 article “Megatrends or Megamistakes” by Tom Forester. Forester argues that the information revolution did not have the profound effects that were predicted. He writes: ”There is as yet not much sign of the ‘classroom revolution’ taking place and the idea of human teachers being replaced by automated teaching machines still sounds just as fanciful as it always did. An OTA (Office of Technology Assessment) report in the U.S. pointed out that classrooms have changed very little in the last 50 years – unlike, say, offices or operating theatres. Despite a huge influx of personal computers into U.S. schools, there is still only one for every 30 pupils on average. But even this expenditure is being queried by some educationalists, among other things, that more money should be spent on books and better teachers rather than computers, that much educational software is trivial and of limited educational value, that the use of computers in class tends only to have a short-term novelty values and that the whole notion of “computer literacy” does not stand up to close examination.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1992
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: E-learning
Name of publication: Computers, Ethics, and Society (book)
Title, headline, chapter name: Whatever Happened to the Information Revolution in the Workplace?
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 202, 203
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne