Crucial doubts remain as to whether the re-wiring of America will result in Jeffersonian networks promoting the openness, freedom, and diversity that is the true promise of this technology. In the worst case, we could wind up with networks that have the principal effect of fostering addiction to a new generation of electronic narcotics … Their principal themes revolving around instant gratification through sex, violence, or sexual violence; their uses and content determined by mega-corporations pushing mindless consumption of things we don’t need and aren’t good for us … Purveyors of network services could simply decide that a business strategy that encourages the widest variety of content sources and originators will dramatically increase network usage. A few pennies per transaction will eventually add up to billions of dollars in revenue.
Predictor: Kapor, Mitchell
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 article for Wired magazine, Electronic Frontier Foundation co-founder Mitchell Kapor writes:”A broad consensus on key business, technological, and political aspects of a National Information Infrastructure, or NII, is emerging. The creation of high-capacity broadband networks by cable and telephone companies seems imminent. Yet even as the necessary agreements between business and government are forged, crucial doubts remain as to whether the re-wiring of America will result in Jeffersonian networks promoting the openness, freedom, and diversity that is the true promise of this technology. In the worst case, we could wind up with networks that have the principal effect of fostering addiction to a new generation of electronic narcotics (glitzy, interactive multimedia successors to Nintendo and MTV); their principal themes revolving around instant gratification through sex, violence, or sexual violence; their uses and content determined by mega-corporations pushing mindless consumption of things we don’t need and aren’t good for us. What could prevent such a fate? The purveyors of network services could simply decide that a business strategy that encourages the widest variety of content sources and originators will dramatically increase network usage. A few pennies per transaction will eventually add up to billions of dollars in revenue.”
Biography:Mitchell Kapor founded the Lotus Development Corporation and also founded the Electronic Frontier Foundation with WELL (Whole Earth ‘Lectronic Link) members John Perry Barlow and John Gilmore in 1990 in direct response to a threat to free speech. He was an outspoken supporter of open access to the Internet, and was asked to speak in many venues about the issue, including Congressional hearings. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Community/Culture
Subtopic: Social Withdrawal/Addiction
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Where is the Digital Highway Really Heading? The Case for a Jeffersonian Information Policy
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.eff.org/Misc/Publications/Mitch_Kapor/nii_kapor_eff_wired.article
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Nolan, Diana