The cable industry has the daring and the wherewithal to bring this about, but it does not have the technical culture or experience … Telephone companies, which have long prided themselves on engineering expertise, also recognize they do not have all of the necessary talents to develop viable broadband networks … More alliances are inevitable as the players jockey for position to form teams with the critical mass of skills and resources to open up new markets.
Predictor: Kapor, Mitchell
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 article for Wired magazine, Mitchell Kapor, a co-founder of the Electronic Freedom Foundation, writes: ”The cable industry has the daring and the wherewithal to bring this about, but it does not have the technical culture or experience … Recognizing this, the major cable operators like TCI and Time-Warner are seeking partners who can bring the necessary technical capabilities to the party, even as they begin to develop their own. Telephone companies, which have long prided themselves on engineering expertise, also recognize they do not have all of the necessary talents to develop viable broadband networks … Now the computer industry has joined the fray. In April of this year, Microsoft and General Instruments announced their intention to work together to create the intelligent set-top converter this new network will require. Really a computer in disguise, this next generation cable box will contain an Intel ‘386 or higher microprocessor and multiple megabytes of ROM and RAM. In this mad scramble, strategic announcements are being driven by a complex series of forces mixing serious intent with hopeful or even wishful thinking. More alliances are inevitable as the players jockey for position to form teams with the critical mass of skills and resources to open up new markets. Public statements are driven not only by realistic internal commitments, but by defensive public relations – ‘strategic positioning’ – to counter an impression of lagging the competition.”
Biography:Mitchell Kapor founded the Lotus Development Corporation and also founded the Electronic Frontier Foundation with WELL (Whole Earth ‘Lectronic Link) members John Perry Barlow and John Gilmore in 1990 in direct response to a threat to free speech. He was an outspoken supporter of open access to the Internet, and was asked to speak in many venues about the issue, including Congressional hearings. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Role of Govt./Industry
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Where is the Digital Highway Really Heading? The Case for a Jeffersonian Information Policy
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/1.03/kapor.on.nii_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney