There is concern among advocates of broadband networks, coming from both technologists and policy-makers, that ISDN is a dangerous diversion on the path to fiber. In reality, most of the money needed for ISDN has already been spent or committed to upgrades for digital switches in central offices. At issue is the availability and pricing of the service. ISDN is likely to find its place as a service for the last mile.
Predictor: Kapor, Mitchell
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 article for Wired magazine, Mitchell Kapor, a co-founder of the Electronic Freedom Foundation, writes: ”Integrated Services Digital Network (ISDN) is a technology designed for the public switched telephone network that allows low-cost communication in data, voice, graphics, and video. It is designed to run over the existing copper local loop that connects the telephone company’s central office to the home. If offered nationwide and subject to affordable tariff rates, narrowband ISDN can offer digital service to the home and office without requiring the significantly greater time or expense of infrastructure conversion to broadband … There is concern among advocates of broadband networks, coming from both technologists and policy-makers, that ISDN is a dangerous diversion on the path to fiber. In reality, most of the money needed for ISDN has already been spent or committed to upgrades for digital switches in central offices. At issue is the availability and pricing of the service. ISDN is likely to find its place as a service for the last mile. There are far more modern, more capable protocols to serve as the major highways of an information infrastructure. Either ISDN will be widely deployed or not. If ISDN serves its purpose, we can jump-start the information age, but in any event we must turn our attention not only to ISDN, but to what lies beyond it.”
Biography:Mitchell Kapor founded the Lotus Development Corporation and also founded the Electronic Frontier Foundation with WELL (Whole Earth ‘Lectronic Link) members John Perry Barlow and John Gilmore in 1990 in direct response to a threat to free speech. He was an outspoken supporter of open access to the Internet, and was asked to speak in many venues about the issue, including Congressional hearings. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Where is the Digital Highway Really Heading? The Case for a Jeffersonian Information Policy
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/1.03/kapor.on.nii_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney