Networks that reach into the home will be hybrids of the fiber-optic cable and existing copper wire and coaxial cable used by telephone and cable television companies. Fiber-optic cables will be used in the major arteries and portions of the distribution system, while existing copper and coaxial cable will be used in the last hundred yards. To achieve a broadband network capable of delivering high-quality video, voice, and data, it is both unnecessary and too expensive to replace the last segment into the home with fiber-optics.
Predictor: Kapor, Mitchell
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 article for Wired magazine, Electronic Frontier Foundation co-founder Mitchell Kapor writes: ”The emerging consensus between business, government, and policy watchdogs [includes the following point]: A hybrid Net: Networks that reach into the home will be hybrids of the fiber-optic cable and existing copper wire and coaxial cable used by telephone and cable television companies. Fiber-optic cables will be used in the major arteries and portions of the distribution system, while existing copper and coaxial cable will be used in the last hundred yards. To achieve a broadband network capable of delivering high-quality video, voice, and data, it is both unnecessary and too expensive to replace the last segment into the home with fiber-optics.”
Biography:Mitchell Kapor founded the Lotus Development Corporation and also founded the Electronic Frontier Foundation with WELL (Whole Earth ‘Lectronic Link) members John Perry Barlow and John Gilmore in 1990 in direct response to a threat to free speech. He was an outspoken supporter of open access to the Internet, and was asked to speak in many venues about the issue, including Congressional hearings. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Where is the Digital Highway Really Heading? The Case for a Jeffersonian Information Policy
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.eff.org/Misc/Publications/Mitch_Kapor/nii_kapor_eff_wired.article
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Nolan, Diana