There’s another reason why I don’t think libraries will ever go online. Electronic media aren’t archival.
Predictor: Stoll, Clifford
Prediction, in context:In his 1995 book “Silicon Snake Oil,” writer Clifford Stoll shares his take on the Internet’s future implications:”There’s another reason why I don’t think libraries will ever go online. Electronic media aren’t archival. Oh, I hear my technofriends squeal. CD-ROMs have life spans of decades if not centuries. But the physical medium isn’t the problem. It’s the reading mechanism … Think of the many extinct formats: 78 rpm records; 2-inch quad-scan videotapes; phography cylinders; paper tape; 80-column punch cards; 100-column punch cards; 7-track digital tape; 8-track tapes; DECTape; 8-millimeter movies; 5-inch glass lantern slides … even familiar ASCII text may be pushed aside for a coding system better suited to non-English languages, Unicode. Will my backup tape from last night be readable in a hundred years? I doubt it … An archival medium shouldn’t depend on duplication for preservation.”
Biography:Clifford Stoll was an astrophysicist who also wrote the influential books “Silicon Snake Oil” (1995) and “The Cuckoo’s Egg.” A long-time network user, Stoll made “Silicon Snake Oil” his platform for finding fault with the Internet hype of the early 1990s. He pointed out the pitfalls of a completely networked society and offered arguments in opposition to the hype. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: Libraries/Databases
Name of publication: Silicon Snake Oil
Title, headline, chapter name: Wherein the Author Considers the Future of the Library, the Myth of Free Information, and a Novel Way to Heat Bathwater
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 181-183
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Tencer, Elizabeth L.