What is Mosaic? A navigator for interactive stuff on a network. The network happens to be called the Internet, but the physical network is slowly improving in bandwidth and someday it will be capable of carrying video. The slope of growth of the television industry is zero. It’s even negative. Television doesn’t change … People don’t have problems with interactivity on computers. More and more, computers are being built so you can see video on them.
Predictor: Clark, Jim
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article for Wired magazine, Michael Goldberg interviews Mosaic executive and former Silicon Graphics Inc. CEO Jim Clark. Goldberg quotes Clark saying:”What is Mosaic? A navigator for interactive stuff on a network. The network happens to be called the Internet, but the physical network is slowly improving in bandwidth and someday it will be capable of carrying video. The slope of growth of the television industry is zero. It’s even negative. Television doesn’t change. Cable is nothing but an overlay of a physical delivery scheme for broadcast television that has been around for 40 years. There’s no two-way interactivity, nothing. So I began to think about the difficulties of the transition of the cable industry into interactivity. It’s a completely daunting task. First of all, you have to cause the television industry to get accustomed to digital technology, which is a major change. Then it has to think of two-way interactivity, which is a major change. And it has to make the physical network carry switched-video capability. That’s just a whole group of major changes … People don’t have problems with interactivity on computers. More and more, computers are being built so you can see video on them. You look at those dynamics, and you look at the dynamics on the other side of the ledger, and you say, What are you doing over here? Get over there.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: TV/Films/Video
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Why Jim Clark Loves Mosaic: After Leaving Silicon Graphics, Jim Clark Wanted to Get Into the Interactive-Television Business, But Wasn’t Sure Where the Next Fire Would Strike. With Mosaic, Clark Thinks He Has Found the Spark
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.10/jim.clark_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney