Even a nonliterate person will be able to use what the PC becomes, because when you remove the keyboard and put a big display on it, you have television, but you also have computing … Those things you traditionally associate with each medium are going to come together, and I think they’re going to come together with the center of gravity around computing, not around the old television technology … The rate at which cable can change the installed plant doesn’t compare to the rate at which computing technology is going to become a television.
Predictor: Clark, Jim
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article for Wired magazine, Michael Goldberg interviews Mosaic executive and former Silicon Graphics Inc. CEO Jim Clark. Goldberg quotes Clark saying: ”The cable industry, or traditional television, counts on the stupidity of the consumer. The PC counts on the intelligence of the consumer. But the point is, even a nonliterate person will be able to use what the PC becomes, because when you remove the keyboard and put a big display on it, you have television, but you also have computing. You have things that you associate with a computer today. Those things you traditionally associate with each medium are going to come together, and I think they’re going to come together with the center of gravity around computing, not around the old television technology. When you change the entire screen, the entire analog system to digital, the underlying broadcast to an interactive schema, you have computing, not television. So the computer becomes a TV, rather than the TV becoming the computer. Maybe the flaw in my thinking was that I felt television and the cable industry could move quickly. I thought they could. I was wrong. I don’t believe they can. The rate at which cable can change the installed plant doesn’t compare to the rate at which computing technology is going to become a television.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Internet Appliances
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Why Jim Clark Loves Mosaic: After Leaving Silicon Graphics, Jim Clark Wanted to Get Into the Interactive-Television Business, But Wasn’t Sure Where the Next Fire Would Strike. With Mosaic, Clark Thinks He Has Found the Spark
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.10/jim.clark_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney