The creation and transmission of knowledge will no longer move vertically, from the top down. It will move horizontally, among many people, at a tremendous speed. This will undermine the foundation of every bureaucracy, including schools.
Predictor: Perelman, Lewis J.
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 article for The Christian Science Monitor, Romolo Gondolfo interviews Lewis J. Perelman, senior researcher at the Discovery Insititute in Washington, D.C. Gondolofo quotes Perelman saying:”In pre-modern societies, education served to create a core of literate bureaucrats to run states and empires. Even in modern, industrial societies, education was meant primarily to manufacture people who could perform bureaucratic functions. All bureaucracies, as we know, are rooted in the idea of controlling people’s access to knowledge by concentrating it at the top and distributing it very parimoniously to those at lower levels. But this is precisely what is becoming more and more difficult to do in this new Age of Knowledge which we are right now entering. The rapid growth of both computing and communication technologies is causing a true revolution which will eventually be more radical than the agricultural or the industrial revolutions. A fundamental implication of this revolution is that the creation and transmission of knowledge will no longer move vertically, from the top down. It will move horizontally, among many people, at a tremendous speed. This will undermine the foundation of every bureaucracy, including schools.”
Date of prediction: September 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: E-learning
Name of publication: Christian Science Monitor
Title, headline, chapter name: Will Technology Alter Traditional Teaching?
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://proquest.umi.com/pqdlink?Ver=1&Exp=05-02-2003&FMT=FT&DID=000000069685575&REQ=1&Cert=0nzS0a3OsmfRWpTfCg2MADgGcutcpaaJymAy9vfr3T%2fKnRoWJYTXB8bmNLIifTSlfy9LQoXA1IojQJFizuVX5Q--
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Garrison, Betty