The spread of home computers and their use as communication devices will almost certainly influence the viability of important institutions like the neigborhood, the local newspaper or the city schools. Not everyone will be a winner in this process; it’s a safe bet that the home computer will support some institutions while undercutting others.
Predictor: Kraut, Robert E.
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article he wrote for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, professor Robert Kraut discusses the impact of the Internet: ”It is difficult to predict … how this spread of computing at home will affect larger social institutions. Let us take the case of communication as an example. It is very likely that the communication can be used in many different ways – to more easily participate in PTA meetings and other community activities, to electronically bring together stamp enthusiasts or other special-interest groups and other education programs or to distribute nationally syndicated entertainment and information. Thus, the spread of home computers and their use as communication devices will almost certainly influence the viability of important institutions like the neigborhood, the local newspaper or the city schools. Not everyone will be a winner in this process; it’s a safe bet that the home computer will support some institutions while undercutting others.”
Biography:Robert Kraut, a professor of social psychology and human-computer interaction at Carnegie Mellon University, set out in the 1990s to do research on the impact of the Internet on the average U.S. family. He is known for a longitudinal field trial called HomeNet in which carefully assessed how families’ use of the Internet changed over time. (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)
Date of prediction: July 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Community/Culture
Subtopic: Virtual Communities
Name of publication: Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Title, headline, chapter name: Will Teenagers Yak on Computers the Way They Do on Telephones?
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Section: Business, Page C8
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Krout, Kevin M.