Trends in miniaturization point to remarkable results around 2015: Device sizes will shrink to molecular dimensions; switching energies will diminish to the scale of molecular vibrations. With devices like these, a million modern supercomputers could fit in your pocket. Detailed studies already show how such devices can work and how they can be made, using molecules as building blocks.
Predictor: Drexler, K. Eric
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 article for Wired magazine, Jeff Greenwald edited together a story on the “Seven Techno-Wonders of the World” as compiled by requesting input from 100 individuals “who have been, in our estimation, conspicuous beacons on the broad frontier of high technology.” In the top seven listed (the communications network, micromanufacturing, digital astronomy, senior citizens, the Human Genome Project, neuromantic drugs and immersive technology), two on the list contained predictive statements. Folllowing is one submitted by K. Eric Drexler of the Institute for Molecular Manufacturing, a co-founder of the Foresight Institute whose most recent book is “Nanosystems”: ”All signs point to a revolution that advances to the limits set by natural law and the molecular graininess of matter. Trends in miniaturization point to remarkable results around 2015: Device sizes will shrink to molecular dimensions; switching energies will diminish to the scale of molecular vibrations. With devices like these, a million modern supercomputers could fit in your pocket. Detailed studies already show how such devices can work and how they can be made, using molecules as building blocks.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Internet Appliances
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Wired Wonders: Rhodes Had its Colossus. We Have Our Old Folks
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/1.06/wired.wonders_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney