Chapter 12: Critical Issues
The first manifestations of the information highway will be apparent in the United States by the millennium. Within a decade there will be widespread effects.
The first manifestations of the information highway will be apparent in the United States by the millennium. Within a decade there will be widespread effects.
We are watching something historic happen, and it will affect the world seismically, rocking us the same way the discover of the scientific method, the invention of printing, and the arrival of the Industrial Age did. If the Information Highway is able to increase the understanding citizens of one country have about their neighboring countries, and thereby reduce international tensions, that, in and of itself, could be sufficient to justify the cost of implementation. If it was used only by scientists, permitting them to collaborate more effectively to find cures for the still-incurable diseases, that alone would be invaluable. If the system were only for kids, so that they could pursue their interests in and out of the classroom, that by itself would transform the human condition.
This network, and the computer-based machines connected to it, will form society’s new playground, new workplace, and new classroom. It will replace physical tender. It will subsume most existing forms of communication. It will be our photo album, our diary, our boom box. This versatility will be the strength of the network, but it will also mean we will be come reliant on it. Reliance can be dangerous … A complete failure of the information highway is worth worrying about. Because the system will be thoroughly decentralized, any single outage is unlikely to have a widespread effect. If an individual server fails, it will be replaced and its data restored. But the system could be susceptible to assault. As the system becomes more important, we will have to design in more redundancy.
If people do gravitate to their own interests and withdraw from the broader world – if weight lifters communicate only with other weight lifters, and Latvians choose to read only Latvian newspapers – there is a risk that common experiences and values will fall away. Such xenophobia would have the effect of fragmenting societies. I doubt this will happen, because I think people want a sense of belonging to many communities, including a world community.
American popular culture is so potent that outside the United States some countries now attempt to ration it. They hope to guarantee the viability of domestic-content producers by permitting only a certain number of hours of foreign television to be aired each week … The information highway is going to break down boundaries and may promote a world culture, or at least a sharing of cultural activities and values. The highway will also make it easy for patriots, even expatriates, deeply involved in their own ethic communities to reach out to others with similar interests no matter where they are located. This may strengthen cultural diversity and counter the tendency toward a single world culture.
This new access to information can draw people together by increasing their understanding of other cultures. Some believe it will cause discontent and worse, a “Revolution of Expectations,” when disenfranchised people get enough data about another lifestyle to contrast it with their own. Within individual societies, the balance of traditional versus modern experiences will shift as people use the information highway to expose themselves to a greater range of possibilities. Some cultures may feel under assault, as people pay greater attention to global issues or cultures, and less to traditional local ones.
Knowledge workers in industrialized countries will, in a sense, face new competition – just as some manufacturing works in industrialized countries have experienced competition from developing nations over the past decade. This will make the information highway a powerful force for international trade in intellectual goods and services … The net effect will be a wealthier world, which should be stabilizing. Developed nations, and workers in those nations, are likely to maintain a sizable economic lead. However, the gap between the have and have-not nations will diminish. Starting out behind is sometimes an advantage. It lets those who adopt late skip steps, and avoid the mistakes of the trailblazers. Some countries will never have industrialization. They will move directly into the Information Age.
Access to government information, medical advice, bulletin boards, and some educational material will be free. Once people are on the highway, they will enjoy full egalitarian access to vital on-line resources. Within 20 years, as commerce, education, and broad-scale communications services move onto the highway, an individual’s ability to be part of mainstream society will depend, at least in part, on his or her using it. Society will have to decided how to subsidize broad access so that all users will be equal, both geographically and socioeconomically.
As the economy shifts, people and societies who are appropriately educated will tend to do best. The premium that society pays for skills is going to climb, so my advice is to get a goof formal education and then keep on learning. Acquire new interests and skills throughout your life. A lot of people will be pushed out of their comfort zones, but that doesn’t mean that what they already know won’t still be valuable. It does mean that people and companies will have to be open to reinventing themselves – possibly more than once. Companies and governments can help train and retrain workers, but the individual must ultimately bear principal responsibility for his education.
Societies are going to be asked to make hard choices in such area as universal availability, investment in education, regulation, and the balance between individual privacy and community security. While it is important that we start thinking about the future, we should guard against the impulse to take hasty action. We can ask only the most general kinds of questions today, so it doesn’t make sense to come up with detailed, specific regulations. We’ve got a good number of years to observe the course of the coming revolution, and we should use that time to make intelligent rather than reflexive decisions.