This page contains only the anonymous written responses from Internet experts and stakeholders who answered this question in the 2014 Pew Research/Elon University Future of the Internet Survey. Some survey respondents chose to identify themselves; a majority remained anonymous. We share most of the anonymous respondents’ written answers here. Workplaces are attributed for the purpose of indicating a level of expertise; statements reflect personal views. To read the full report, click the image below.
Internet experts and highly engaged netizens participated in answering an eight-question survey fielded by Elon University and the Pew Internet Project from late November 2013 through early January 2014.
This survey question asked respondents to indicate whether the following companies will be “more important,” “less important,” or “stay the same” in 2025: Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Other US firms, Non-US firms. They were asked to share their answer to the following query:
In 2025, which of the current colossus companies now wielding influence over how we use the Internet will be more important and powerful and which will be less important and less powerful (or even disappear)? Describe the most powerful Internet-leveraging and Internet-influencing corporations of 2025: Which will they be? What will they do? What kind of impact will they have on human connection, commerce, politics/civic life, education, and health care?
To read full official survey analysis, please click here
To read credited responses to the report, please click here
Following is a large sample including a majority of the responses from survey participants who chose to remain anonymous in making their remarks in the survey; some are the longer versions of expert responses that are contained in the official survey report. More than half of respondents chose not to take credit for their elaboration on the question (for-credit responses are published on a separate page). Respondents were asked to indicate whether the following companies will be “more important,” “less important,” or “stay the same”: Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Other US firms, Non-US firms. They were also asked: “In 2025, which current colossus companies now wielding influence over how we use the Internet will be more important and powerful and which will be less important and powerful (or even disappear)? What impact will they have?” (While many wrote an answer, some respondents chose only to rate the listed companies and not provide a written elaboration.)
The director of innovation for a multi-country company aiming to tap into the gigabit Internet wrote, “I was an executive director of one of those US firms, and I work with some of the others, so this question is hard for me to answer objectively. Google’s mission statement will be maintained and will be seen to be remarkably prescient, as their market and income rises dramatically. The key to this will be the ability to provide sense-making services. Amazon will compete there, as an adjunct to its current cloud services. Apple and Facebook need to refresh their senior management if they are to stay the same or become more important. Microsoft lost its way 10 years ago and no one serious wants to be its CEO.”
A law professor at Georgetown University and former US Federal Trade Commission official wrote, “Amazon’s business model fits perfectly to the networked life. With Prime, and accelerated delivery, Amazon is on track to become the nation’s retailer. And it has no obvious competition in this space. For Apple, the question is whether it can continue to generate new products that are qualitatively far better than the prior generation of products they aim to replace. By all evidence, Apple will continue to occupy that space, though I envision that soon US and non-US competitors will make a run at Apple’s leadership in this space. Google, to me, is the most aggressive innovator in the world. It has not stopped to rest on its laurels and it has what no other company has, three evergreen products—search, Gmail, and YouTube—that are dominant in their markets. Indeed, Google search is so entrenched that Microsoft and Yahoo will, in the long run, have to abandon their competition. And Microsoft, unless it dramatically changes course, will become less important as alternative systems are developed. Breakthroughs are needed in a number of areas: health care portability; education, with the fraying of our higher education fabric due to cost; and civic life in general. There is plenty of space for new, innovative companies, and the key question to me is whether the US will continue its dominance in innovation, or will it be challenged by the Chinese? Eastern Europeans? Etc.”
The CEO of a software technology company and active participant in Internet standards development, responded, “If IBM continues its work on intelligent computing/ AI then it may be in a position to provide some of the next generation knowledge based computing that would be key in areas such as medicine. It is also likely that European and Asian countries become increasingly disenchanted with US based Internet service providers due to concerns over privacy and government data gathering (and overall dependence on the US), and hence they will foster local alternatives. China already has a number of key competitors to US-based service providers and they are likely to grow these and more.”
A retired software engineer and IETF participant responded, “With a still-pervasive mentality of bigger-is-better, and despite the obvious pitfalls of ‘too big to fail’ the US will allow a series of mergers and acquisitions to produce a very tiny number of mega-corporations that will eventually eclipse the government itself in power.”
An engineer ranked in the top 50 in a networking company that employs 75,000 and leading participant in the IETF wrote, “Facebook is over. Amazon and Google make major money and they will continue to grow in influence (see the video Googlezon). Microsoft has missed the transition. Apple has stayed in front.”
A former chair of an IETF working group wrote, “The non-corporate entities who ‘influence’ the Internet will become hugely important in the future. The ‘governance’ of the Internet has been remarkably informal and US-centric. This is going to change for lots of reasons, good and bad.”
A CEO for a company that builds intelligent machines responded, “Find the companies that build the engines that will autonomously collect, analyze, and deliver insight from information and those that automate the tasks of information workers. All other companies will be chasing after the value created by these companies.”
The head of the department of communication at a top US university wrote, “Most of these will stay the same, but they will take the form of a social backdrop/wallpaper that is so integrated into our everyday existence, we do not realize it is even there. So using these platforms will feel like entering a room and turning the light switch on, opening the fridge to see what’s available foodwise, turning the TV on to check news (which no one really does much, anymore), and checking Facebook to see what happened in the world, immediate and distant. We will have to get used to non-US firms colonizing the Internet, however. This will happen—and it will be good, because the mainstream platforms for utilizing the Internet are rather ethnocentric, and typically introduce/impose more of a Western experience/norms/reality.”
A professor emerita in the graduate program at a research university responded, “The nation-state is all but dead. The global economy is rapidly becoming more important in the lives of people on an everyday basis. I would like to believe that as we shift away from national politics toward a more economics-driven international society that more will share, but I doubt it. I think the gulf between the haves and have-nots will merely increase. Although the year 2025 sounds distant, it is only 11 years away. When I think about the changes in the world over the past 11 years, I see more turbulence socially, ecologically, nationally, economically that reflects the policies and practices of transnational companies with little regard (other than projects for public relations) for the consequences for peripheral communities (not merely nations). I am actually glad to have just retired. I don’t know what my children are facing as they move into middle adulthood.”
An anonymous survey participant wrote, “It is likely to be the Chinese, India-based, and Korean firms like Samsung that will take the lead on Internet applications. It is all about how humans adapt and appropriate devices to their everyday lives. If there is a human need that is supported well by a provider it will be successful. The axis of economic power is likely to shift in the coming years, and the US and the EU nations could find themselves leveraging Internet-hub excellence and the cloud, and pulling back from outsourcing to Asia Pacific nations in order to maintain a global presence. I would expect telecommunications providers to have a resurgence of importance as they have the customers.”
A professor at the iSchool at the University of British Columbia responded, “New sectors: higher education may finally join the cyberage; Big Data, haven’t even got a company that dominates yet; telecomm firms, the need for connection will increase their prominence; hardware developers, more big number-crunching machines that work faster will be important; entertainment industries—Netflix producing its own material, 3D movies will rise in prominence; falling—movie theatres, any business that requires you to go out and get a product that can be streamed; rising—those that create better products and hardware for delivery, and connectivity of existing devices.”
A technology policy expert wrote, “The companies that will become ‘more important’ are those who see the current value in locking people into their ecosystems. Apple, Google, and Amazon are doing this in their own ways, Apple through gorgeous devices, Amazon through product choice and top-notch service, and Google through free, ubiquitous software and platforms. Microsoft, as the king of installable software, will probably fade in importance. I’m never going to bet on the long-term value of social media platforms like Facebook or Twitter. Things change too fast in that environment for their survivability to be guaranteed.”
The director of a leading foresight organization wrote, “US firms will be down, non-US firms up.”
An employee of the US government based in Washington, DC, responded, “Google and Amazon seem destined to infiltrate every part of America’s life: shopping, driving, entertainment, finances, work, and leisure. If they succeed in doing so, they will have tremendous leverage to set policy in Washington—not the least because of their deep pockets. As status brands for Millennials they also have a big impact on the workforce and employee expectations of work. I don’t believe a non-US firm can ultimately wield as much power as a domestic one, even a company as innovative as Samsung.”
A collaboration strategist responded, “Any firm dealing with databases will grow in importance (IBM, Microsoft, Oracle, Salesforce {especially those with cloud-hosted offerings}). They will likely to continue to aggregate outliers like Cache, M, Marklogic. The availability of APIs will be the chief indicator of future success for any such technology.”
An Internet engineer and machine intelligence researcher responded, “The dominant robotics and machine-intelligence companies have not even begun to penetrate the awareness of the general public, even though their products are being introduced into an ever-increasing number of applications. One of these companies will likely establish itself well enough to permit independent growth into a colossus. Whether Apple, or Google, or Microsoft are able to re-engineer their organizations and their products to successfully enter the emerging robotics and machine-intelligence markets is not clear. Large, established corporations have had extreme difficulty adapting themselves to new technology markets despite many varieties of attempts. It is particularly important to realize that these emerging colossi are more likely to be non-US firms. Companies from emerging economic leaders such as China, Brazil, or India that willing and able to take great risks in order to gain a global presence.”
An Internet pioneer who was instrumental in connectivity in the 1990s, responded, “Apple, and to a lesser extent Microsoft, because they are so ‘proprietary’ in their use and control/pricing of patent technologies and devices will give way to more and more sophisticated ‘open source code’ devices (which Android devices have been based on and Google has taken advantage of.) Amazon will prosper and grow because it sells and delivers a great variety of ‘things.’”
A professional designer of human-oriented technological systems wrote, “Anything robiticizing compassion and care will be successful.”
An anonymous survey participant who works as a senior executive for the US executive branch commented, “There will be a rise of super-empowered individuals with a neo-feudal approach of vassals who ‘friend’ or surround them, with vassals that then surround them. The nation-state model declines. Google, IBM, and others ask for diplomatic immunity. Corporations start being treated with some of the ‘rights’ previously only given to nation-states.”
An international project manager at Microsoft commented, “Non-US companies will become more prevalent, partially because of distrust in US IT companies following the Snowden revelations in 2013 (Although the effect will long be gone by 2025, the refocus on local players in the mid-2010s will have created some big players in China, Europe and Japan.) Microsoft, with its enormous research budget and its visions for natural user interfaces, will experience a resurgence end of the 2010s, Google and Amazon will maintain their influence. Facebook will be replaced by many other social media, while Apple will thrive a little longer in the mobile space, until the late 2010s, and then disappear.”
A program director focusing on ICT standards policy, Internet Governance and other issues wrote, “The most powerful and innovative companies will be producing products that utilize technologies that only sci-fi writers dream about today. Nano and biotech will be the norm. Current goliaths will find a way to survive, but their relevancy and cache will diminish, sort of like stars burning through the red giant phase, only to end up white dwarfs. Technology ultimately will enable all of us to become goliaths, much like YouTube and Vimeo have enabled some folks to become media stars.”
An eHealth expert responded, “Some of the dominant players in the field will lose ground primarily because their applications become unnecessary or obsolete. Facebook and Google will be replaced by less centralized and more ubiquitous systems.”
The COO for a consulting and contract research organization wrote, “The biggest changes will be in B2B services, business overheads and back office operations, and health care. Education, politics, and government services will lag behind health care by ten years or so, with the possible exception of the military.”
The vice president of research and consumer media for a research and analysis firm responded, “Amazon and Google are infrastructure companies with strong relationships with consumers and merchants/advertisers. Apple has not done a good job at building infrastructure/”cloud” services and will fall behind. Microsoft is unable to succeed beyond superficial enterprise applications (word processing, spreadsheets, email, simple file serving). Facebook’s hitting a wall and will be able to increase its advertising, but not its influence.”
A newspaper journalist and health communications consultant wrote, “Google and its techno children, will be the most powerful in 2025 because they will have the most data. They will use the data either to provide the technology to us or to other companies that will provide the technology to us. They will cause less emotional connection among people and more data trading among people. They will eliminate retail stores but spawn new methods of shipping within the country and inter-continental shipping. They will bring some governments closer and isolate others (this may cause violence). They will cause education to become more techno-connected but also may cause children to become less socially skilled. Health care, in all ways, will be wonderful.”
A professor at the Grady College of Journalism and Mass Communication at the University of Georgia, wrote, “The existence of all firms will depend on the way technology develops and their ability to be nimble in response. Certainly those currently doing well have an advantage, but my guess would be that other and non-US firms will be more important than they currently are. That is based on the assumption that new firms will rise as technology develops.”
The principal software architect for a large Internet company wrote, “The Snowden revelations have created a permanent barrier to the global penetration of US Internet firms. With Android heading toward 90+% market share in smartphones and tablets, Google is set to become the dominant computing vendor of the next decade. This will inevitably result in the decline of Apple and Microsoft, who will be reduced to niche markets. Facebook has the potential to become the world’s largest communication provider, displacing today’s carriers.”
A senior lecturer at the University of California wrote, “I don’t find this question very interesting. Something like Facebook will be important. It doesn’t matter—except to a few rich people holding Facebook stock—whether it’s Facebook itself or some company that eats away Facebook’s audience with a similar but newfangled product. And so on for the others.”
A post-doctoral researcher wrote, “I am betting on Amazon and Google as the likely future leaders of the tech industry. Microsoft has already shown that it is unable to adapt to the developments of technology and Steve Ballmer has failed. I am uncertain of Apple’s future, whether it would become more important. iPad and iPhone were the last great technologies it created. Facebook is becoming trite and still hasn’t figured out a tasteful way to monetize its platform, the privacy watchdogs are after it, and there is a Facebook fatigue now. Amazon is already talking about embracing drone technology and Google is developing Google Glass. Both are sitting on top of a large amount of data. I can’t make too much of a positive prediction for the future. On the outset, it would appear that these technologies are improving human connection, politics, and civic life, but the same technologies are being used to improve commerce and manipulate politics. For instance, the Obama campaign used commercial data to microtarget voters to have Obama elected. Can we call this a truly ‘free’ democracy? On the other hand, the same technologies can be used by those in weak positions to undermine power structures. Healthcare would be improved, but I see a lot of privacy battles down the road.”
A distinguished engineer working in networking for Dell wrote, “Innovation is key and the only company that I think invests in their people and in innovation is Google. All others are a sham. Apple’s best days are behind it. That doesn’t mean they won’t keep making good products, but it’s unlikely they will change the world. Google will do well, but it won’t be because of Google Glass, it will be because of its tools and apps, and maybe things like self-driving cars. Once the founders of Google are gone, the company will start to fail, but that won’t be until after 2025.”
A principal engineer for Cisco wrote, “We have seen plenty of examples of companies coming to dominate a technology segment in less than 10 years, only to fail over the next 10. There’s no reason to think that this will change.”
A self-employed software developer and policy researcher wrote, “Mainly, my impression is based on current practices, and anything can happen in 10 years. If Google continues down its current path, I don’t think it will continue to hold such sway. More and more it is releasing poor, malfunctioning products that force users into situations they don’t want to be in, and rather than addressing problems and improving products or product lines they keep trying to expand into new areas willy-nilly. I don’t think you can function long-term by always trying to break new ground without taking any responsibility for your products or user relationships. I don’t know about the other companies. Ten years is a long time in this context.”
A leader of learning and performance systems at Pennsylvania State University responded, “In the next decade or so there will be a serious shift in the names of the companies we imagine are big now, they’ll be dinosaurs and new companies that we’ve not yet heard of will come to take their place.”
A university lecturer predicted, “Amazon’s core business of cloud computing will gain even more relevance.”
A principal engineer with Ericsson and leader with the Internet Society wrote, “Companies that know how to get users to give them personal information without incurring any costs will be the winners in the long run. Facebook, and other social media sites, will continue to rise and fall, while those who intercept the traffic along the way through searches and providing the underlying cloud and application services, will continue to grow in power and influence (assuming there is no backlash against the privacy invading tactics of these companies, or the moral issues involved in using information to modify individual behavior doesn’t become a huge issue). The gateway is where the power is, not the destination, at this point.”
A pioneering academic computer scientist from Princeton University wrote, “Amazon will gain importance because of its role as an infrastructure provider. Apple and Facebook seem to be near the peak of their influence and will likely shift to a mode of monetizing the installed base rather than being innovation leaders. Google will continue as an engine for access to useful information, although that will be offered in a more proactive way. Other firms, both US and non-US, will grow because that is the nature of tech markets—new entrants will continue to play an important role, although there will be less churn in the market than there has been in the past 20 years.”
An anonymous respondent who works as a journalist wrote, “Search will always be with us, and can only grow in importance. Google also shows the ability to take on big risk/big reward blue-sky projects. So they may start something new. Facebook is entrenched in social media, but has not shown much ability to innovate usefully. The big new opportunity is for somebody to make the Internet of Things as easy to use as the iPod. Non-US firms will grow in importance as the Internet inevitably globalizes.”
A network scientist for BBN Technologies wrote, “Amazon has a very good track record of figuring out how to apply new technology to its core mission of moving things around. Apple’s fate will largely hinge on its ability to maintain the lead it has. Facebook and Google have both grown confused about their missions, and seem to be thrashing. Microsoft has proven to be a survivor and has some room for growth if leaders can execute on it. In general the most successful tech firms in the next 10 years will be those that figure out how to leverage technology to change how the real world works, rather than pure tech plays. Think Uber or Airbnb, rather than Intel or Asus. US companies have been leading the way in these sorts of business models, but the rest of the world is rapidly catching up. The developing world in particular has had a talent for blending tech and reality (e.g., with the evolution of mobile payments in Africa), so I expect that as technology capacity develops in those nations, their impact will grow.”
A research fellow at the Global Cities Research Institute replied, “Perversely, the Internet’s decentralised nature has reinforced the importance of certain geographic centres of innovation. Nothing in the past 20 years has substantially disrupted the dominance of US technology companies globally. Other nations’ information technology industries tend to feed rather than threaten that dominance, as either outsourced service providers (e.g. India), or nimble and highly-trained centres of innovative development (Finland, Israel, Australia). I don’t expect the ‘perfect storm’ of freedom of speech, large consumer base, sophisticated venture capital and stock markets, culture of experimentation, high calibre universities and aggressive corporatisation that characterise the US tech industry will readily be replicated in other nations in the near future. Individual stock-picking is hazardous, but in my own view, Google and to a lesser degree Amazon provide the equivalent of Internet ‘utilities’—services I cannot do without in personal or professional life. By comparison, I can pick and choose between Apple, Microsoft, and other vendor devices, OS’es, software suites, etc. I’ve never been convinced by Facebook’s long-term ‘value proposition,’ and use it less rather than more over time. It would be nice to see other innovative firms, both in the US and elsewhere, grab people’s attention.”
A CEO wrote, “It could be Google-zon.”
The director of IT for the New York Academy of Medicine, a non-profit specializing in urban health issues, responded, “By and large Amazon’s AWS is really a strong indicator of the future. It will develop interfaces and tools so that even non-technical people will be able to use and take advantage of their products. The rest? I have no idea.”
A professor of new media and Internet studies at a European graduate school wrote, “Apple will sooner or later collapse unless it starts becoming open-source, which is why Google will continue to rise. Facebook will also be hitting the ceiling as people move on to the next big thing. I don’t have much to say about the others. But non-US firms will start competing because of restrictions of legal protection due jurisdiction.”
A technology journalist working for a major US news organization wrote, “I’m sure today’s big names won’t completely vanish. That said, corporate lifecycles may be shortening—Zynga, anyone?—so it would be a remarkable achievement if today’s tech giants had maintained the huge power—and profits—more than 10 years into the future. They’ll be disrupted by newcomers, just as they disrupted the hugely profitable incumbents in the past. And, as the benefits of technology and globalisation reach around the world, it would be foolish not to imagine that there will be some non-US firms sitting at the top table by 2025.”
A PhD student wrote, “There will be a raise of Asian firms, even if not from all over Asia, and they will uptake US firms with cheaper and fashionable products. This will be especially true in the case of firms offering products and not services, such as: Apple and Amazon. Companies that will focus on services will probably maintain or increase their power.”
A program manager for a major US federally-funded technology project responded, “Commerce activities like Amazon should do well. Google is expanding beyond search engine, which is a good thing. The others are more susceptible to other innovators.”
A social entrepreneur dedicated to increasing opportunities for people with disabilities wrote, “Google, Facebook, and Twitter will be successful, among a few others.”
A researcher at a marketing firm doing work in the online privacy space responded, “Amazon in particular are just getting started. Google has access to such a range of data that I also think they are not finished finding ways to use it and help the public use it. Amazon will continue to play a larger role with consumers. It will get better at anticipating what consumers want and recommending what they are looking for. Its range of products/services offered will also expand to the point where we use it for products/services we wouldn’t normally seek online. Maybe this is wishful thinking, but I’m hoping that Google will find a way to make understanding shifting trends on the Internet more accessible to users. Right now Google shares real-time traffic on the roads, and I use that every day. I’d like to see that same kind of tool spread to other topics and areas so that I can understand more about my world and fellow humans.”
The president of a technology consulting company wrote, “Google and Facebook will continue to expand/diversify and will work more with the US and world Governments. Microsoft will continue its work but will also be held back by its in ability to innovate (the result of its size and inability to move quickly). Apple will continue to exploit others’ creations as their own and enhance them but its influence will slow as it becomes less agile. Large, emerging countries like China, Brazil, and India, will have much more influence on the world and technologies while some smaller countries (mostly European) that are more agile will be able to innovate faster and incorporate new technologies into their citizens’ daily lives that will influence other countries to do the same. Japan is headed for some very difficult times as its cancer rates (the result of huge increases in radiation) and other health burdens on the economies will skyrocket by 2025; this will also be true for the West Coast of the US, causing the US to become less influential as resources shift to address these increases. The ecology of the planet will also help to determine where and who will have the most influence.”
A professor at Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain, responded, “The companies that have based their projection and power upon the Internet and on applications and services running on ‘the cloud’ will presumably be more important. At the same time, probably some new companies—and other agents—will appear, and some strategy, like joint ventures, will introduce changes, major or not, into the technology business landscape as we know it.”
The CEO of not-for-profit technology/education/innovation company responded, “Facebook is already becoming regarded as passé among young people. Apple is no longer introducing game-changing technologies. Google will be increasingly avoided because of its ironic association for exploiting privacy in the service of its profit margins (in other words, its history of pursuing a course of commercial strategies directly in opposition to its ‘do no evil’ slogan).”
A professor of entrepreneurship at Tel Aviv University wrote, “I hope Apple will get its act together. But they seem not to use what they have.”
An assistant professor at a US university wrote, “Google is currently on the cutting edge of these types of technologies, and I believe their business model, especially with investment in sustainable energies and connective infrastructures, will only increase. I believe, though, that current leaders may not be using their potential as well, and divesting. That will give future entrepreneurs more access and innovation to succeed where the Apples, Facebooks, and Microsofts could not.”
A college professor wrote, “It is impossible to tell what will come, but ‘will stay the same’ fits already-existing monopolies—and the companies mentioned have monopolies because they have cornered the market (controlled communication activity) in one or more areas. Non-US firms will have agilities of various kinds that US firms won’t have—and they’ll probably have smarter employees since the US education system has become rotted with a ‘no child left behind’ mentality. Companies that control both content and communication delivery (e.g., Disney) will be more likely to do well. Soft power will continue to infantilize the broader public and keep them pacified and easily exploited/ignored.”
A professor of ICT and social sciences at the University of California wrote, “The history is one of succession—IBM used to be the big company in computers; MySpace was the leader in social media. Most innovation these days happens in small companies that bear the risks, and then the big companies buy up the successes. This is temporary. I don’t know what will succeed this model, but someone will figure out a better way. (“Better” for some, anyway.) Or at least a different way that has different costs and benefits. In short, things always change, and no company stays on top indefinitely.”
An anti-spam and security architect wrote, “Who knows, a Skynet or a weyland yutani maybe? You are going to see a ton of consolidation by 2025 and multiple large companies merging together.”
A promoter of the global Internet who works on technical and policy coordination wrote, “Google and Apple will still have leading roles in 2015, but other non-US firms will have partnered with other non-US technology appliance and service provider to service new Internet users, largely non-English speakers with new services.”
A PhD student in communications wrote, “Reports are already out that Facebook use among young people is declining. While that still leaves a sizable population of the world, young people are what determine what the rest of the population seems to adopt, so I’d say while Facebook will remain influential, its influence will wane. Given its incredible monopoly Google seems set to remain and even grow in influence, whereas companies with established but not innovative business models (Amazon, Microsoft, Apple) will remain the same. It’s already started that non-US stakeholders are asserting their right to determine the fate of the Internet, which means that US firms can only hope to hold on to what influence they have, or else face decline.”
The CEO of an ISP serving a state in the US West, wrote, “Companies like Facebook will be forced to compete with something ‘cooler,’ while outfits like Google will continue to expand to take over the Internet experience and monetize it. Microsoft is moving its software to the cloud, but the speed of interaction might become a problem as volumes increase to significant levels.”
The owner of a small publishing and consulting business wrote, “Reversion to the mean, baby! Except for Amazon, which is playing a long-term game.”
An Internet pioneer and author wrote, “Google was not even the fourth or fifth most popular search engine when it was launched. Predicting success of enterprises is even more uncertain than predicting success of technologies. That’s why venture capitalists are a big business in the technology world.”
A professor of telecommunications at Pennsylvania State University wrote, “Google and Amazon have good fundamental long-term visions and strong management. They both border on the scary. Facebook is a social network. Social networks come and go. Apple has played out unless it comes up with some new product lines. Microsoft is on the edge and needs a massive turnaround.”
The co-founder of a consultancy with practices in Internet technology and biomedical engineering wrote, “Amazon will retain influence due to their infrastructure businesses (cloud computing, payment processing, mechanical turk, data storage, etc.) that create the framework adopted by emerging online ventures. Apple has made major contributions to online music and mobile communications, but nothing so significant since 2007. Facebook seems to have leveled out in terms of adoption. US firms can retain their influence through the Silicon Valley venture capital machine, a sort of ‘record company’ to discover new talent and turn it into US companies. Non-US firms stand to increase in influence as the Internet becomes more accessible in other countries with large populations.”
The general counsel for an Internet domain name registry wrote, “I regard Facebook as not too far from the hula hoop. Apple is crippled by its closed system.”
A doctoral candidate at Bowling Green State University wrote, “There have been recent reports in the US news media about the decline of innovation occurring in giant IT companies like Apple, Facebook, and Google—spread through underground message boards by current and former employees of the companies. These reports are telling about the state of innovation that is not happening within the companies. Due to these reports, I believe some of these companies will become less important by 2025.”
A professor at George Washington University wrote, “Continuing success: Amazon, on-line shopping. Apple, portable devices. Facebook, online playground. Google, access to information. Microsoft, workstations.”
A member of the Internet Society chapter in Costa Rica wrote, “Success will be seen in energy companies, public utilities, transportation companies.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, “We’re going to see a lot less innovation from the US. Schooling has been poor and young developers have neither the perspective nor the familiarity with the deep workings of technology to revolutionize anything.”
A longtime Internet policy expert and open Internet advocate wrote, “Google is only 15 years old, Facebook even younger. It’s almost a given that in another 12 years, similar shifts will occur.”
The director for an e-learning strategies company wrote, “While shopping will continue, the unique design and engineering advantages of existing companies will be duplicated. Apple’s emphasis on owning the ecosystem means it may continue to maintain a rapt audience. Facebook taps into a human universal, but the system is more easily disrupted. Google is more a commodity service, valuable as that commodity is, and while it has resources to acquire, it may lose the ability to be nimble. Microsoft has been on the downswing for a long time. Other US firms will emerge in the vibrant market environment, but other firms are going to tap into a vibrant global community to exceed their existing and growing influence.”
A professor at the University of California wrote, “The major economic power will shift out of the West. If you look at the demographics, most in the US population will be old and decrepit. Africa, Asia, and South America will have the most younger people.”
The dean/provost of a research university and former CEO of the California Virtual University wrote, “I’m sure there will be new companies headquartered in many places in the world that will create new devices or services we will want to use.”
An associate professor at a university responded, “Google will have a monopoly of social networking and information search.”
A social policy and new technologies researcher wrote, “The big corporations, who can provide a whole ecosystem (e.g., operating systems, desktop computers, tablet computers, cell phones) will dominate the business.”
A research scientist working at a major search engine company responded, “The only one I have a strong opinion about is the rise of non-US firms. Statistically speaking, there are just so many of them that at least one will emerge as a new colossus. I don’t know if it be based on a novel health-app or system (a health-records system from Israel, say), a commerce system (e.g., a new more viable Bitcoin coming out of Russia), or a commonly-based reasoning module that all search engines use (from, say, Holland). But there are lots of smart people outside of the US. They now have reach and computing capacity far beyond what was possible five years ago. And in many cases, they have less regulatory overhead.”
A webmaster predicted, “Skynet.”
A digital learning and media specialist and educator responded, “All the companies that maintain our data in the cloud will become hugely powerful. Salesforce is another influential company.”
A professor at a university based in Canada wrote, “The odds of Apple or Facebook remaining at the top of their respective industries is low over this timeframe. Google will, insofar as they continue their various efforts at monopoly and monetization of information. Microsoft will as well simply because of network effects with their OSes and business software. Most of the major innovations will likely come from non-US firms.”
An Internet pioneer and longtime National Science Foundation employee wrote, “Describe the most powerful Internet-leveraging and Internet-influencing corporations of 2025: Unknowable at this time. In >10 years, new players will emerge. Many existing players may merge or be merged out of prominence. Amazon will continue to do well because it is a money machine. Apple? Not all that sure. Microsoft is already fading. Facebook is fading already among the younger set of today, and they will have the money in >10 years. Non-US firms are bound to catch on, especially in India and China with huge populations and their investments in higher education. Unless US immigration policy changes to take advantage of the brain drains from other countries, US prominence will decline.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, “US firms like GE and Citrix will be huge players in the connected-devices world. Amazon will continue reshaping commerce and old-style rivals will not flourish. Microsoft, Oracle, SAP will struggle to retain relevance as users find new competitors that offer better product and service at lower prices.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, “Hard to know which firms will be most influential. More important is the competitive force among these firms that moves them to re-create themselves constantly. This forces ‘all boats’ and in the short-term identifies winners and losers. However, in the long-term, it is the competitive force that is most powerful.”
A Mozilla browser engineer wrote, “The ability to capitalize on Big Data will determine success in the future market, hence a loss to Apple and other US firms that lack the ability to accumulate data on their users effectively. However, near-term changes in US Internet power, aided by the revelations of US government tampering, will accelerate the transfer of the balance of power on the Internet to other nations. The US financial situation will further help this trend as they demonstrate an inability to effectively govern, driving innovation to Asia.”
A researcher at Tallinn University in Estonia wrote, “There will be significant path-dependencies in the systems and considering that Internet logic supports the continuation of oligopolistic markets it makes sense to expect that the currently well positioned global companies such as Google, Apple, or Amazon will continue to have a central role also in 12 years. It is, however, possible that some new companies in the US and elsewhere will emerge to dominate the global markets at least temporarily.”
A top engineer for a major US company and longtime Internet architect wrote, “Nothing stays the same. Four of the five big firms listed here are already showing signs of decline. Facebook is probably the weakest, with a single product and stiff competition. Innovation appears to have dried up at Apple. Google’s internal feuds mimic the Microsoft of 10 years ago, and we know where that leads. Amazon may be the exception, as it keeps expanding year after year. We have to expect the next Google or the next Facebook to emerge in the coming years, probably from the US given the barriers to entrepreneurship in Europe and Japan, and the continuing role of the communist party in China.”
A professor at Swarthmore College responded, “Facebook is working with a clumsy legacy product that cannot be monetized without driving off its users. Their only hope for long-term relevance is that they end up buying a start-up that designs an app or idea more important or with more potential than Facebook and that they do not make the mistake of forcing an integration of that idea into Facebook’s architecture. Some of the other potential technological companies that one could imagine arising by 2025 will depend on non-technological changes in the US economy and society. For example, there’s clearly room for a technologically mediated form of health care provision, but most of the current stakeholders will fight tooth and nail to prevent that from happening. Games and entertainment could change dramatically, but only if the social narrowness and cramped imagination of current developers opens up to allow a wider range of creative talent to enter into the process of creation and design.”
A self-employed writer, researcher and consultant wrote, “Business-to-business applications will be the most innovative applications. Expect Apple to continue to be nimble and youth oriented and for Amazon to increase market share. Non-US firms almost inevitably will come to the fore as economies in the Far East grow.”
A telecommunications and Internet policy professional who works for a Japanese non-profit semi-academic research center wrote, “Amazon will succeed; it will start buying supermarket chains.”
A senior researcher at a leading British university observed, “If I knew I would make investments.”
A consumer advocate wrote, “Consider the 2025 of today as the today of the year 2000. Things have changed, but not that much. However, obviously Microsoft is in its death throes.”
A computer programmer for the Canadian government wrote, “Many companies come and go we may have 3 to 5 next big thing cycles by 2025.”
A self-employed consultant wrote, “The firms that are able to successfully mine Big Data will grow in power, as this is the economic imperative. I don’t believe anyone on the above list will look like it does now in 2025 as they will have mutated—maybe beyond recognition. As they choose where they’ll focus beyond their roots, then we’ll see real change.”
An expert on smart cities wrote, “Companies that got their start in the 1980s and 1990s will continue to be relevant, but the odds are against their being able to increase their importance through the radical shifts ahead. US firms will inevitably lose relative importance as the ‘rise of the rest’ continues to change the global economy and make it more diverse, less predictable but ultimately more stable and productive.”
The senior policy advisor for a major Internet operations organization responded, “Businesses built on reputation will survive better than others, but it will still be a matter of innovation and fashion. US companies will do best because of the culture of innovation and investment. The far-East ditto. Europe will be limited by a risk-averse culture and excessive regulation. Some companies will struggle as people become more aware of intrusion or unfair practices—they will need to respond or shrink and my judgment above is based on how well I think the companies named might be able to do this. In Amazon’s case, as the number of trusted competitors grows, the pressure on the company will increase. The same applies to Apple.”
A professor of technoculture at the University of California-Davis predicted, “There will be a host of new conglomerations.”
A professor at the University of Illinois wrote, “All companies will increasingly depend on network leveraging and infrastructure and, as a result, if in no other capacity than consumers of various network services, you will see a larger and larger number of corporations influencing the development of the network, but as a corollary, any given company’s influence will be somewhat diminished. Companies that will see increased influence are those directly responsible for offering and maintaining network services: telecommunications and network security firms.”
The technology director for a major global news provider responded, “The companies with the most impact in the future will be those that have more than one big play in the nexus of forces that define the digital age—connectivity, computing power, search, social interaction and data analysis. Devices are cool but are likely less important to how much influence a future digital powerhouse can wield. For instance, what’s more important to Amazon’s future—the Kindle or the cloud? And we’re only starting to see the rise of great powers from outside the US, there will be more to come.”
A professor of law at an East Coast university in the US wrote, “One never knows how companies might adapt to the changing marketplace, but I would bet on Amazon and Google over Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft. Out of all these companies, Amazon has figured out a number of ways to separate consumers from their money, a key to the long-term health of any company. Google has invested in some very smart people as well as a number of long-shot projects—and they also own the business of search, which will become even more crucial in the future. Apple and Microsoft both need to innovate to stay in the game. At this point, it isn’t clear how they do that. And while I may be dead wrong about this, it has never been clear to me that Facebook has understood the reasons for its own success. The platform and the management have always struck me as very AOL. If Facebook is still half of what it is now in five to 10 years, I’ll be surprised.”
The executive director of a nonprofit that protects civil liberties online responded, “Social networking will become more integrated into everything we do, so applications like Facebook will no longer be relevant.”
The director of a web-based journalism project at a major US university responded, “Amazon and Google have only begun to scratch the surface of what they are capable of doing. Google Glass and the Google car are good examples of the kind of advances that keeps that company ahead of its competitors. Amazon has created a cyber marketplace that is convenient and less expensive than the traditional marketplace, and it gets stronger and more creative each year. Drone deliveries? Seems crazy, but what’s next?”
An anonymous survey participant wrote, “The US is falling behind in technology at a very fast rate, and investors only want short term gain from the USA firms. As this does not allow for heavy investment in future technology, I can only see US firms going south.”
A professor at a Big 10 research university in the US wrote, “Microsoft is on a slow decline, that is obvious. It’s just going to take a long time what with all of the businesses on Windows. I actually think that eventually, the federal and state governments will be very powerful players, what with health insurance online apps, public data, and data mining available.”
An executive for a US Internet service provider predicted, “Facebook and Twitter become MySpace.”
A principal research fellow in urban informatics said, “There will be new players that will rapidly rise to the top: Those that seek the moment, combining unique expertise in one domain with the know-how of the Internet of Things and broadband access, e.g., pharmaceutical companies that are willing to seriously invest and experiment with IoT injectables.”
An administrator for technology-focused units in educational nonprofits responded, “Technologies like those at Apple, Google, and applications of technology (and associated business models) like those at Amazon will be powerful. People will continue to make/build different relationships (assisted by technology) and develop different circles of people whom they trust. This will change the status of expertise (who is trusted as an expert, is viewed as an informed person, is perceived as providing a valued relationship) in organizations around the world.”
A PhD candidate in information sciences and technology observed, “The Amazon Droid delivery, while seeming cute right now, presages a way to do certain kinds of automated urban delivery in the next 10 years. However, with Asian countries growing in population, technical skill, and monetary influence over the North American landscape, there are undoubtedly a host of new systems, technologies, and paradigms that haven’t made themselves known yet in the West. Google however has shown its ability to be nimble, adaptive, and innovative, while Microsoft appears to be remaining siloed in the 20th century concept of proprietary Operating Systems.”
An Internet Society leader wrote, “Companies will come and go—its the applications and services that matter.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, “Amazon seems to be moving in the direction of building fundamental infrastructure (a ‘platform’) for other entities’ e-commerce. If successful, they will move into another level of impact beyond Internet retailing. In brief, I have no idea. Simply too far out to say. However, here are some thoughts on what might occur. Apple is coming off of an unusual round of disruptive successes. Doing so through 2025 seems highly unlikely, and would require moving into a new domain (e.g., robotics). I see no evidence for Apple doing so more than anyone else. Facebook will likely grow, but there is a fad component to their service, and I don’t see much ‘stickiness’ to their provisioning model. Which suggests its more likely they will be surpassed than not. Microsoft has bad DNA and will not long be able to leverage their legacy Wintel and Office monopoly. Expectation here is that they won’t last long beyond Bill Gates’ heavy involvement (already well in decline). Other US firms—no idea.”
A technology writer observed, “Amazon will evolve to be the dominant way to buy a product, and will eventually acquire a company that has a widespread physical presence, like Costco. Through development of Siri and compelling devices, Apple will become the dominant provider of personal devices and services. Apple and Amazon will ‘divvy up’ or combine their media services. One or the other will acquire Netflix. Google’s dominance in search engine will become a background function to other interfaces, such as Siri. Google won’t benefit from ads in such situations, though they might be able to sell ‘search’ as a function to companies like Apple. I don’t see a profitable path forward for Microsoft except possible exploiting its minor lead of Xbox One as the hub of a living room/television. Facebook will remain popular for another five years or so, but eventually fade out of prominence as better ways of sharing more selectively evolve.”
An assistant professor at a Big Ten university replied, “Google is a company that will continue to grow in power and access; it is a company that is getting more heavily ‘networked.’ With the passing of Steve Jobs, more people are questioning Apple and its ability to be innovative. People who are already sold on the Apple brand will continue to use it. However, Apple may face a larger problem with reaching those individuals who are not.”
A US government Internet policy analyst wrote, “In the rough and tumble marketplace, there will always be a succession of firms, with even dominant firms giving way over time.”
A freelance editor and writer wrote, “Depends on what other advances enter the picture.”
An assistant professor at New Mexico State University, responded, “Amazon aims to be the store for everyone, but Jeff Bezos is aiming higher than that: outer space resources. Either he, as an investor, or Amazon in some other capacity, may go far beyond mere merchandising. Apple might surprise by moving beyond really cool consumer tech. But neither Steve Jobs nor anyone else I’ve heard of at that company seems to have considered moving beyond ‘insanely great’ consumer gear. Google is the best for (to mix my metaphors) landing a knock-out blow with one of its ‘moon shot’ projects. Sergei Brin and Larry Page dream big dreams. Microsoft is now, finally, in transition into a post-Steve Balmer era. It has the money and talent to do great things if it can undergo a cultural revolution and shake-off the narrow-minded and rather mean-spirited ethos it has been imbued with; whether the evil empire can become a beacon of light remains to be seen. I suspect that some non-US firms that almost no one has yet heard of will surprise us over the coming decades with a breakout product or service. As the Chinese have found out, catching up to US innovation is doubly-difficult because innovation is a moving target.”
A respondent who is self-described as a “social innovation orphan” wrote, “Company life cycles are getting shorter. I doubt the leading companies of 2025 are even a wink in their founders’ eyes yet. Amazon and Google may last longer than the others in the list, but they too will crumble within 10 years.”
A researcher and graduate student wrote, “Google and Facebook will be the most influential. They will also include financial interactions and both will also be involved more with education.”
An author and president of a media company, wrote, “Apple is a blue-chip company that won’t lose too much influence, nor will Google. They seem to evolve intelligently. Facebook and Microsoft, however don’t really seem to have strong long-term vision or development paths, and I see that as the cause of their demise in the long term. Amazon is an innovative monopoly, and until we acknowledge that, we can only expect them to gain power. What is happening as a result of these companies’ approaches to media is we are losing privacy and are being turned into an always-on consumer society. I feel like Brown Thursday was as much the fault of Amazon and its ceaseless retail power, as the companies who opened their doors in a desperate attempt to compete. Technical talent is not as attracted to the United States as it used to be. I think we can expect to see international technological influence wax as more and more of the brightest individuals choose to remain in Asia and Europe. Samsung is the new normal, not the anomaly.”
An information technology historian and professor of information studies said, “I think the idea of ‘Internet-leveraging’ and ‘Internet-influencing’ corporations as a special kind of company will probably fade. As more companies rely on the Internet in more ways to do more things, a firm like Facebook or Amazon will come to seem less unusual. In particular Amazon is the model of the future of retail, and thus will be seen as a retailer whose strategy is enabled by technology (like Walmart in the 1980s) rather than as a tech industry firm.”
The chief scientist for a major Internet-based business wrote, “Markets will begin to behave in a post-Cluetrain way [referring to the book The Cluetrain Manifesto]; the pendulum will have swung from corporate power to customer power to a balanced conversation between a series of networked participants. New forms of platform: intermediary, broker and exchange will emerge, providing three things: a basis for trust; the facility to enable some form of interaction (discovery, conversation, engagement, fulfillment) across specific asset classes; a framework upon which new value-creating services can be built by the ecosystem: openness to competition, the freedom to move assets between platforms (assets held primarily in digital form as data and metadata); federation of identity; complete transparency of platform status and of the underlying financial mechanisms.”
A thought leader and principal at a consultancy responded, “Facebook has peaked in numbers at 1.2 billion. It has several features that people do not like and it is not trusted as a company. Alternatives will rise. Google has spread into numerous areas all harnessing the collection of Big Data. They have spread their bets and will likely continue to expand. Apple will need to survive the transition of their cult of personality to see if innovation can go beyond the drive of a single visionary. Microsoft’s culture is too slow and traditional thinking to move something that big.”
The dean of a top university in Africa replied, “Amazon has moved far away from books to being a general store. This will continue. Online shopping is growing. Apple in many ways pioneered the platform of sharing important data across different devices. Buy a song, or make an appointment on your iPhone, and it appears also on your desktop, iPad and laptop without any intervention. This is the kind of convenience people want. This gives them a head start on other more diverse platforms and companies that use those platforms. Facebook will be subject to the whims of its users. Already teenagers are leaving the platform for other ways of communicating. Google. At some point we all pass through Google on a daily basis. unless they really screw it up this will remain. Microsoft. They have not moved to mobile platforms with any success, the desktop market is shrinking. The US is still the centre of innovation and product development. Non-US firms will have advantages in local and regional markets (China, Africa).”
An anonymous respondent wrote, “There will just be different companies. That’s all. There’s no expectation that these companies will continue as they have been. Meanwhile, US companies will wane because we won’t have the trust in them that we used to because of the inability to provide legal safeguards against abuse, and immigration reform (or lack thereof) will still make a mess of things, so other countries’ firms may rise, if they don’t also continue to make the same mistakes that the US have. Google, however, has proven to be quite flexible; and Apple’s strategy of hardware and software will be powerful so long as we continue to commoditize tech.”
A self-employed digital consultant replied, “Most of the previous giants are no more. New ones take over from time to time. The industry is built on rapid change. That will continue. All of the ‘giants’ are the most vulnerable to attack because they are the biggest prizes.”
A 25-year veteran of technology research and entrepreneurship wrote, “Amazon will continue to devise services that simplify life, just as Apple will devise devices that simplify and enhance life. Google has a large number of technology initiatives some of which could work out. With the decline of the US, the country will lose its market-here-first status; interesting developments are already happening first in Korea or Europe. I don’t have a crystal ball for which corporations will win big, but a strong focus on people and their interactions will be required to maintain impact. Areas like education and health care are currently stuck in very unhealthy economics that favor incumbents over innovation; it is not clear they will be able to break free and join the 21st century within just a decade (clearly there is no political intent to make any of this happen), but if they could, that would be the most disruptive development.”
An anonymous respondent replied, “Google will find more companies to buy and expand their influence, I don’t see them fading out anytime soon. Facebook, with its user flux, will probably go by the way of MySpace and be replaced by another social networking site. Businesses like Tumblr and apps like Instagram, which attract teens and offer self-curated feeds based primarily on people’s interests with ads sprinkled in will gain a lot more influence in the future, as soon as someone figures out how to best monetize them.”
A social activist wrote, “A telecommunications company will be significant, purchasing, ordering, voting, making appointments, checking sugar levels.”
An academic leader at the University of Maryland School of Information Studies wrote, “The US government will have much more of a fundamental influence on the Internet than will any individual corporation because it sets the basic rules of commerce and innovation. However, corporations that provide resources such as storage (like Amazon cloud), purchase and delivery of goods (like Amazon), and information (Google) will be important. It is unclear whether Apple can maintain its creative and design edge without Steve Jobs. Microsoft was important in developing standards and interoperability, but its supremacy in this area has been undermined by Java, PDF, etc.”
A director at an Internet-based company replied, “Google is the only one that comes close to maintaining relevance in a decade.”
An associate professor of history at Concordia University in Montreal, Canada, wrote, “Most corporations will be multinational, as they are now in fact. The first four companies on the list will survive if they manage to disentangle themselves from the US government. These companies have already proposed legislation to curtail the US government’s online surveillance and interference with the operation of Internet services.”
A university professor and researcher from a large public university in the US wrote, Amazon’s web services business will become increasingly important to the conduct of business and government. If Google continues to diversify it may maintain and improve its standing. Social networks rise and fall, and by then Facebook will be part of the history of the Web.”
A senior staff member for one of the leading Internet standards organizations replied, “Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, old schools, haven’t embraced the open movement, and will die because of that.”
A university professor wrote, “More educational apps will appear.”
A self-employed programmer and Web developer wrote, “This is like predicting the future, however I do believe non-US firms will gain importance and Microsoft will still be a major player but no longer a ‘technological monopoly.’”
A leader with DotConnectAfrica in Nairobi, Kenya, responded, “Social media firms will likely not scale up in terms of technology provided, so far there is no more creativity. Rather there are major acquisitions and modalities to fight competition. Firms are creating or assimilating existing startups and technologies to their own formats. Social Media companies are bound to remain the same as new start-ups grow. Other Enterprise service providers like Microsoft will maintain a growth if they increase use of the cloud.”
An associate professor at Northeastern University replied, “Microsoft has to yet be as important as it once was. Apple and Google are continuously innovating on their technologies and have gained a lot of momentum. The international market is also growing in terms of products that it delivers and it will become more important.
An associate professor of sociology at California State University-Northridge wrote, “That question seems double-barreled, in several ways. For example, I’m not sure to what extent I’d regard Facebook as important now—and many folks are right to think that it will fade a bit, attract more and better competition, and not be as ‘hot’ as it is now. But I think its role will expand and become complex, making it more important for whatever it is and becomes then.”
An anonymous respondent replied, “In 2025 there will be a host of new companies who have not yet surfaced and they will dominate the landscape.”
A software research and development professional for a major software organization wrote, “China’s influence will greatly increase, based on their ruthless exploitation of intellectual property. Google will grow in influence because of their investment in data and real-world knowledge. Other US firms not so much.”
The president of a major Internet association in India wrote, “Some of the corporations that would be important in 2025 would take care of developmental needs of Asia and Africa, solving issues such as water sanitation power, etc.”
A research fellow at Danube University Krems in Austria replied, “They will be involved in providing more services that we rely on, e.g. in governments and public administrations, health, banking.”
A lecturer in media and communications wrote, “New economies like China will have a much bigger influence here. And something new will come along to displace Facebook. Amazon and Tesco and other big monoliths will probably remain—the anti-corporate movement might do them some damage but not enough as they’ll still eat other businesses for breakfast. I think medium-size organisations are most at risk—the current trend for boutique, artisan, home-grown, independent stuff might continue (albeit in a different form) so small people might find a way, and giants will crush the things in between.”
An information scientist for a major non-profit research organization known for its futures work wrote, “Amazon operates on small margins. It’s not clear there is a revolutionary opportunity for it. Apple should be more important for two reasons: as a content distribution network, and for more secure systems (e.g., see Google’s decision to rely on Apple products and de-emphasize perimeter defense. Facebook is a meme. Unlike Google, Amazon or Apple, it adds little value beyond the social experience. This could be abandoned as easily as it was adopted. Microsoft doesn’t seem to understand consumer electronics and cloud services. Enterprise IT will increasingly be defined by the consumer electronics experience, and this will work against Microsoft’s offerings, which are tired very tightly to the Enterprise (with the exception of X-box 360).”
A PhD who works in developing ICT policy for social development and democracy responded, “It looks like non-US and mainly developing world companies will gain more importance in almost every field.”
A technologist working in Internet policy predicted, “The US has squandered its role as the center of Internet and digital power. The rest of the world will see that this is not the case, and Asia will begin to dominate, along with Asian norms controlling the infrastructure.”
An anonymous respondent replied, “All US companies will keep suffering from the fallout from NSA activities. Facebook is a fad that will fade. Apple is in self-destruct mode due to its desire to be in total control, and unless it stops forcing people to upgrade to new versions of software that has not been tested [it will lose influence]. Google will lose out as it faces competition from many parties; the barriers to entry will lower; creating a service competing with Google Maps will become much cheaper in three years than today. Gmail is under serious threat due to the Google+ integration. Microsoft will split in order to compete in the different market segments it is strong in.”
An anonymous survey participant wrote, “The United States is systematically dismantling its internal ability to innovate through the destruction of public education, publicly funded research, and public policy. I see little hope for industries that require professionals. Other parts of the world that have not approached domestic policy in this way will rise. Some companies, like Amazon and Google, that also provide infrastructure will likely weather the storm, but in large part because of their global reach and interest.”
A professor at Widener University Technology responded, “New companies will develop which will take the place of these companies.”
The director of creative services for a non-profit in Washington, DC, replied, “Apple’s quality will be its downfall. You can only go so far with style. Facebook will fail due to the lack of interest in the coming generations. Google will continue to dominate. Microsoft and Amazon will hold steady.”
A doctoral student at Endicott College responded, “E-commerce, online shopping, international online currency, online learning—its already here. It will grow.”
An anonymous survey participant wrote, “More than 10 years from today new services will have emerged and today’s prominent groups will have gone through the cycle of growth and decline.”
The principal research scientist at a university-affiliated research and innovation center replied, “This question can’t be answered with any modicum of truth. Twelve years is a lifetime in the technology space.”
A senior policy adviser for a major US Internet service provider replied, “Those companies that achieve greater levels of vertical integration—as Amazon and Google are rapidly pursuing—will be the dominant players in the future. Apple may be behind the curve in important ways and has not demonstrated the same passion to vertically integrate outside of devices and a still-limited group of services, and will face greater margin pressures than Amazon (which is oblivious) and Google (which will have money to burn). America’s failure to provide appropriate incentives through immigration and other means will encourage the growth of more non-US firms and the continued reduction of trade barriers will empower more global companies that can effectively compete with the US giants.”
A doctoral student in information science at the Universidade Estadual Paulista, in Sao Paolo, Brazil, wrote, “Leverage will be cellular operating systems and applications for all kinds of life activities.”
A university professor wrote, “We don’t know what is coming next but we can be pretty sure that unexpected things are coming that will displace many of our current giants.”
A business school professor and technology futurist wrote, “Apple has only one direction to go. I suspect it will continue to be extremely significant, but not as dominant as it is today. Meanwhile, Google is making long bets and has so much room for expansion into new categories, that I think it will be even more important in a decade. Facebook will succeed because it has a culture of iteration, and by 2025 the generation that grew up on Facebook will be well-entrenched in the workplace. There will be at least one company that is massively huge in 2025 but isn’t today; maybe LinkedIn, or Salesforce, or Palantir, and a company more on the consumer side.”
A university professor specializing in digital journalism replied, “The most powerful Internet companies in 2025 will master using data to get the right information to the right people at the right time. It will essentially be real-time data marketplaces.”
A researcher for a major US computer software and hardware company wrote, “Amazon and Google continue to innovate and think very far ahead. The rest of these companies do a much poorer job of that. Also, the waning US economic hegemony will make its firms less important than foreign firms.”
A journalist, editor, and leader of an online news organization wrote, “The telecommunications giants are poised to take over the network with malice. NSA revelations will advance the rise of non-US firms as more trustworhty.”
A freelance technology writer and editor for leading US publications responded, “Amazon has nailed the online retail model. It is at the center of the publishing revolution. It is experimenting with space-age shipping schemes and tech, and Bezos just bought a newspaper. It’s a company that keeps surprising us. Apple provides a terrific computing platform. The company revolutionized the music industry and is trying to expand into TV and other media. It found the right form for the smartphone and pulled the world into mobile computing. It single-handedly reinvented the tablet PC category. People love Apple’s products, but it lost a lot when it lost Steve Jobs, and the markets it created are now full of worthy competitors. Speaking of which, Google has enough money and enough vision to succeed in its effort to become a platform company. Mobility is critical to the industry, and Google is crushing the smartphone market with Android. Legal issues will be settled, and then, watch out. Microsoft is playing catch-up with Windows Phone 8 and its tablet, but it still makes the most widely used operating system in the world. Macs are too damned expensive for most people, and the business software that runs on them aren’t as good as the Windows stuff. Period. If Microsoft can make its Windows 8 device-integration strategy work, it’ll head for the front of the pack again. But right now, it’s holding its own.”
An Internet business consultant wrote, “The greatest impact will be in education. Online learning and credentialing will replace the university.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, “Bringing commodities to people is what moves this century. Amazon has a big advantage on what an online store can be, while Google has found the formula to low-profit-service massification. All they can do is keep growing, but some new successful business model might arise in the following 10 years to claim its own share of the market.”
A leader at the Network Information Center in Mexico wrote, “We will start witnessing the rising of the ‘Chinese firms.’”
A professor of communication at the University of Southern California and well-known researcher of Internet uses and users replied, “It will be a company that plays an active role in supporting the annotation and retrieval of information in relation to the built environment; this will certainly include some of the functions of the companies listed—including the search capacity of Google, the technological capacity of Apple, and the ability to supply a range of material objects we associate with Amazon. The fear is that this company will become a monopoly with even more concentrated power than today’s media companies.”
A leader working to implement the National Health Portal of India wrote, “In all probability some new startup will come up with some other disruptive idea.”
A research scientist for Google wrote, “The leading companies of 2025 will barely be on the horizon today.”
An editor, futurist and consultant with Innovation Watch predicted, “Google is pioneering and investing strategically in many technologies that are destined to create entire new industries—robotics, artificial intelligence, Big Data—and is creating an unparalleled global knowledge base. A recent book quoted a Google engineer saying, ‘We are not digitizing books so people can read them. We’re digitizing books so machines can read them.’”
A professor and researcher from the University of Toronto wrote, “Networks are the growth area as they will continue to integrate with content utilizing IPv6 and end-user tracking in routing/storage.”
An information science professional and leader for a national association wrote, “Something new that we’re not anticipating will come along and make some long-time tech giants obsolete.”
A professor of political science at the University of Louisville replied, “The history of online development suggests new companies will be biggest innovators. Some older tech companies will struggle to compete.”
The publisher for a large scholarly society specializing in digital communication observed, “Amazon and Google have put enormous resources into gathering everything into their spheres; their ownership of a) retail and b) information will put them in a position to continue brokering an enormous percentage of our online experience.”
The CEO of one of the largest US private foundations focused on the future of communications wrote, “You should add Twitter to your list of companies that will be ‘More Important.’”
An anonymous respondent replied, “What we now call social media will continue to grow in importance. As people continue to travel more and relocate across the world, companies offering services that include instantaneous translation between languages will take over from today’s US-based, English-dominated companies.”
An information science professional wrote, “The Internet can democratize industry. That is my hope at least :-) I think something will eventually take the place of Facebook or it will evolve into something else. Google I believe can adapt and continue to diversify.”
A self-employed digital communications consultant wrote, “It seems that a big area for innovation is technology as it relates to health care and it seems like the big innovations in that area are currently coming from non-US firms that have an easier time innovating, experimenting, and bringing things to market than the US does.”
The CEO of a consultancy dealing with top-level Internet domains responded, “Highly innovative companies both in the US and overseas will continue to influence the Internet. For example, new gTLDs and their implications on search engines could allow a new search engine company to create a new competitive advantage over say, Google which would change the way users use the Internet. It really depends on the technology, its ease of use, acceptance, and, of course, innovation.”
A professor of education at a major US research university wrote, “Google will increase in influence to the degree to which it continues to produce the most effective way to deal with the surplus of information on the Internet. New firms we do not yet know of will undoubtedly wield greater influence yet as they come into being. Who knows what they are yet!”
A behavioral researcher specializing in design in voting and elections wrote, “Amazon keeps developing interesting services and changing markets. Apple has certainly done this in the past, but I don’t know if they have what it takes to create change in surprising areas again. Facebook will get to a point where it has done all the easy things it can do to make money for advertisers and will start to face a period where advertising just doesn’t work for anyone; advertisers will become increasingly dissatisfied. Google has its fingers in a lot of different tech areas and a vital role in nurturing startups that act as skunkworks for them. Something will come of that. But Google’s power will also come in the huge amount of data it is collecting about people and places. Other companies and entities will want to tap that, but it won’t be free. Microsoft will settle into its new leadership, maintaining its blue chip status. There are companies not in the list both in the US and abroad, some that don’t exist yet, that will do remarkable things, at least challenging the current powerhouses, if not surpassing them.”
A senior administrator at the University of Maryland-Baltimore replied, “Amazon is clearly advancing (drones, anyone?). Facebook is aging (not seen as hip anymore). Apple, unless it comes up with the next new hot thing, will remain the same. Microsoft is too cumbersome. Google is the most intriguing, as it continues to redefine what it is. The metadata analysis from Google is fascinating and could be used in intriguing ways. Also, search and discovery are king.”
A technology risk and cybersecurity expert for a US-based financial services association wrote, “This is were Big Data comes into play. With more data and the ability to analyze it, individuals and organizations will come up with new products that could help anticipate when customers want or need things, better manage risks (e.g., black swan events), or protect society from those who might want to do us harm. I don’t know what these specific products will be but I am confident that this will be an area of innovation.”
A lecturer in international politics and the cyber dimension at a European university wrote, “We’re already seeing the emergence of Asian firms that address specifically the growing market in Asia—i.e.. TenCent. Also, China’s focus on IPv6 is looking like it will eclipse the US lead on things like apps and social networking over the next 10 years. Also, firms like Facebook that monetise personal data without returning any fiscal reward to the users themselves will not be sustainable. They could change of course, but I think these ‘old style’ social networking firms have already built up too much ill will in their customer base to make that transition. Amazon is just a portal and can be replaced by any other. There is nothing distinctive or special about it. Apple without Steve Jobs is just another company. Google is the only one that strikes me as having real endurance though that will depend entirely on the brains and innovation that continue to run it. It has successfully established a relationship with its customer base and seems diverse enough to weather a number of changes to the industries it is involved in.”
A lecturer in human-computer interaction at the University of St Andrews, UK, responded, “The most powerful Internet-influencing companies in the world are likely to be Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and perhaps corporations successfully implementing smart factories, such as General Electric. Crowdsourcing services will be balloon and become dominated by Amazon and perhaps Google. As hardware becomes less important and devices become less personal, a consumer-focused company such as Apple will suffer.”
A deputy director with an organization that studies and analyzes US Homeland Security replied, “Innovation will likely not come from big companies but from individual or small group of innovators. Big companies will stay relevant by acquiring those technologies.”
The webmaster of a history site replied, “Commerce: The Internet will make it possible to directly access products and services, cutting out intermediate steps of promotion and distribution. Aggregators like Amazon or Google will enable individualized direct delivery of products (as with Amazon’s drone capabilities), but this development will be uneven as political boundaries create more and more blockages and ownership issues (such as the European Union or Russia setting up exclusive hubs to block US Internet-based commerce and information). The global Internet as we know it today will become divided into restrictive spheres that will focus on one political region. US Internet-based global dominance will be tremendously negatively impacted. Big Data and information brokering via data coordination: In healthcare, patient electronic records with personal details will impact privacy. DNA-tailored medical services combined with vast in-depth knowledge about individuals that can be shared in an instant, including genetic and health information, will become a major security problem by 2025. Privacy issues will dominate: Personal purchasing habits, location awareness, and other privacy issues will continue to dominate in 2025, keeping it easy to track personal habits and political affiliations of various populations and groups of people by non-governmental, privately-run organizations with various political agendas. Education: There will be fewer teachers at the higher-education level, and at elementary and secondary levels. There will more innovative, flexible, and responsive online content delivery for students. Most higher education will be cheaper and delivered online, with fewer opportunities for students to connect with educators face-to-face, except in specially-created, in-person learning situations that will become vastly more expensive. ‘Live’ learning sessions will become a special commodity. Except for top-tier, well-endowed institutions, colleges and universities all over the world will struggle and shrink, as fewer students will be able to afford in-person instruction. Students will largely be connected by online forums. Knowledge: Information will not flow as freely as it does now. Voracious Internet information-gathering as we see it now will experience a major slow-down as Internet hubs develop their own restrictions to information. Online proprietary information and databases will become even more expensive and impossible for individuals to personally access, except as a part of an institutional consortium. Open-access resources will continue to struggle to retain their place in education, as copyright law and regulations on electronic delivery and usage prevent them from growing. Politics and Civic Life: Politics will become more global as people find like-minded individuals outside their national boundaries. At the same time the Internet will experience regional regulatory intervention and restrictions, depending on varying regional political attitudes. In the US, new political boundaries may develop as regions become polarized. Local civic life will be organized around new political units, some progressive, some regressive, which will, in turn, affect access to Internet and its influence on the population of that region.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, “Amazon has shown the most aggression recently in changing industries to serve consumers and its bottom line and most every move it makes it backs up only with market forces, demand, etc. Other companies appeal more to values, principles, and seem to play defense. Only Amazon points to the proof in the pudding quite so much. As for Apple, its strength—vision—is in question after the death of Steve Jobs. Many non-US firms will become more powerful if only because education in science, technology, and other such skills seems to be accelerating faster in other parts of the world. US struggles in elementary and higher education could hold us back.”
The chief counsel for a major foundation replied, “There is no indication that political leadership in the United States will begin to address the well-known multiple points of failure of the US innovation system: software patents, proliferation of patents, incumbent capture of communications regulation, failure to increase broadband, etc. This is compounded by the collaboration by Apple, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft with the surveillance state. Almost every government in the world will migrate its system from Microsoft software because of Microsoft’s practise of giving exploits to US agencies. As a result new loci of innovation will form outside the United States. Wearable and implanted health monitoring and health care devices will change health care forever, at least for the wealthy. The companies that base them will likely come from Asia.”
A longtime expert on Internet communities and university professor wrote, “To me the question is not about what firm will be there. The question is: Will the Net empower individuals to be more socially, politically, and culturally involved in the life of our species?”
An assistant professor at the University of Albany-State University of New York, responded, “Amazon and Google appear to be developing new products and services that will increase their markets. Facebook, I believe, is increasing advertising on its interface and other market-driven advances. I assume that people will begin to get fed up with commercials on their Facebook news feeds.”
A president and principal consultant at a product useability consulting firm replied, Google will eventually grow “too large” and will be broken up by the US government, as AT&T was. Apple will be bought by either Sony or Samsung or it will merge with Microsoft. The concept of ‘US corporations’ will cease to exist as large corporations increasingly become international and equate less with allegiance to any country. The exception will be large companies in China, which will continue to be quasi-governmental operations.”
A researcher and academic replied, “Amazon’s distribution change and forecasting capacity will continue to exceed expectations. Apple will stay the same provided it continues to mobilize research and development; ditto for Google. Microsoft will contend with more and more spin-off programs that can outperform it.”
A senior researcher in a survey organization wrote, “Just as other industries’ major players change, it can be expected in an industry with speedy turnover.”
An educational technology consultant responded, “Companies we have never envisioned will take control. Disruptive innovations will come from countries from Africa and Asia. American companies, like Amazon and Google, will hold onto their power by managing cloud services that are now developed by what we called ‘third-world’ countries.”
A self-employed survey researcher and statistical analyst and research professor at the University of California-Berkeley replied, “Amazon has expanded into a huge world beyond books. There’s no real end to that. Apple will continue for a while unless the price competition really undermines it. Facebook has already become seen as boring to teens because parents are on it. But maybe its purpose will simply evolve. Google will remain strong: How does one find anything out these days? ‘Bing’ has not become a verb. Microsoft? I just bought a desktop because I have business needs, but outside of certain work, most people don’t need it. Other US Firms will be less important in 2025 relative to non-US firms, which are growing.”
A professor at a major US university’s school of public health wrote, “Nothing lasts. IBM was invincible at one time, and so was Microsoft. So were the Aztecs, for that matter. I think we need a Jared Diamond for technologic kingdoms.”
A knowledge expert and consultant based in Australia commented, “We don’t know what the most powerful Internet-leveraging corporations of 2025 will be. Facebook did not exist 12 years ago. Google had not had its IPO. Apple had only just launched its iPod—and was only starting to change from a quirky computer company into a consumer-electronics giant. If I had to bet money, I would say that by 2025 at least one of the companies on this list will no longer exist as an independent entity (it will have gone bust or been acquired) and at least one other will still exist but will no longer warrant being put on a similar list in 2025. A key observation is that many of the largest companies will not be American—or rather the US will simply be one geography in which they operate (and their headquarters will be in the most tax-efficient location). The big story of the last 15 years has been globalisation and I don’t see that changing.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, “Good companies have their time. Of all of these players, the only two innovative enough to stay in the game in this timeframe are Amazon and Google, and I’m not nearly sure even of these two. The bigger a company becomes, the more dogmatic it becomes and the less likely it is to stay on the cutting edge. Increasingly, it will be the smaller players who will emerge with the better ideas.”
A CEO wrote, “There is improvement in every side, so every form of networking will increase in significance.”
A social science researcher and professor studying social media responded, “Amazon and Google provide multiple services and have the control of massive amounts of data, which is why it will remain powerful. Facebook is just a software program that his been pivotal in shaping current technology use, but it will be replaced by something else at some point. Apple and Microsoft are brands that could easily be replaced by other brands, depending on how they manage their products. News sources will continue to be significant as more and more people get their news from this source.”
A professor of political science wrote, “Companies come and go. I used eBay more than Amazon 10 years ago; now I use Amazon more. MySpace was the craze 10 years ago, now Facebook has replaced it. I imagine that a new survey in 2025 will likely list some different companies. Remember AOL-Time Warner? I’m not that concerned about these ‘powerful internet-leveraging/influencing corporations.’”
An analyst for a central government institution in Chile responded, “We know enough large business that have disappeared in the last 15 years to not be very confident in the ability to predict where there will be large business in the next 12 years. It is more likely that new businesses (and new markets) will emerge and old ones will, in general, lose importance (not that they will disappear, IBM is still a very relevant and profitable business after all). If Google is successful in organizing all knowledge, then it could be at least as important as nowadays. Amazon has the advantage of being involved in large retail in general; it is cheap and convenient and if it retains those advantages it can grow. On the other hand, at some point some investors will want to receive profits.”
A communications professor at a state university in California commented, “Amazon will sell goods, Apple will be replaced by newer technology manufacturers, Facebook will go out of business because it doesn’t have a viable business plan, Microsoft will cease to exist due to obsolete technology; and other firms around the world will replace them.”
A retired professor and head of a communication technology professional association of academics commented, “Google has the most well-funded and active pursuit of ‘moonshot’-type projects. It will increase its diversity of funding of high risk/high reward technologies and other things. Google’s anti-aging program and anything with high involvement of Ray Kurzweil will likely expand Google into health care, pharmaceuticals, transportation, water quality, energy, etc. Apple will continue to decline in importance due to its shortsighted high-margin, high-profile, short-term focus on aesthetics that appeal to the less technically sophisticated. Its orientation to total control of its ecosystems will cause it to become more and more fossilized. Its large accumulation of cash and its capitalization in the market will dissipate quickly once Google breaks through on many fronts as the leader in many areas of life.”
A principal sampling statistician at the American Institutes for Research replied, “The more important firms will be new ones (unless an existing firm is able to re-invent itself).”
A research assistant at the Polytechnic University of Portugal commented, “As we have seen with time, new companies may cause major breakthroughs, thinking out of the box as Apple as done. At some point these will probably lose their power as new companies rise.”
A PhD and active scholar of online communities replied, “International companies are going to become even more prominent as the world ‘gets smaller.’ Also, a company with deliverables like Amazon will be important as more and more shopping goes online. If it does perfect drone delivery technology this will revolutionize the service.”
An associate professor at Penn State, replied, “Amazon and Google (along with Tesla) have the smartestfolks around! They do great things. Microsoft appears to have missed the boat. Apple is trying to fine its way post-Steve Jobs. Facebook is evolutionary. The US is rebounding at the expense of the non-US companies.”
A research associate and PhD student at the University of St. Gallen replied, “The most important Internet companies in 2025 will be: First Google . . . (then a long stretch of nothing)—Microsoft—Facebook—Salesforce.”
A professor at The New School, based in New York City, commented, “It’s all a crapshoot. But, what do I know. I still use a Blackberry.”
An information science professional based in Connecticut wrote, “Amazon offers a lot. Sadly, it takes away from local and non-Internet business. It is a good idea and will likely expand. The US started most of the Internet innovations. Once other countries figure it out the talent out there will take off.”
An academic researcher exploring the Internet and society commented, “Anyone who claims to know the answer to this question is (hopefully) only fooling themselves. Just try to look up predictions about the above companies (those that existed) from 12 years ago!”
A usability engineer wrote, “Information is power and Google will have the information. Facebook as it is now will fade if it does not innovate and change with the population. Apple will still be a force, unless it fails to stay ahead of the competition.”
A survey research professional who has worked for decades for government, academic, and commercial organizations responded, “Amazon provides the wormhole to consumerism, from consumerism to the transfer of large amounts of earned income back into the pockets of… well I don’t know where it goes. Apple is just a tool. Tools get replaced all the time. Facebook—assuming we want to sustain our understanding of present and past relationships, although that is unclear. Google is the black whole of data—all goes in and nothing can escape its force. Eventually it will do something with it, but even Google doesn’t know what. US firms are built around a static culture—investors, shareholders, operators. That culture is going to be replaced by much-more-distributed ownership and invisible entitlements. Non-US firms… because they don’t have the structural impediments to make stuff up and fail a thousand times… the lack of financial discipline and accountability is both exhilarating and destabilizing for the planet. Some new movement will collect and organize around the quality of the environment to sustain economic activity and civic life. But something that can be conceived to be cross-generational, such as the Internet and its assets, has to be developed in a more disciplined and enduring way, and we can’t leave this to the kids in Silicon Valley. This is where policy and principles begin.”
A research director working for a small consulting firm in Minneapolis responded, “Come on. Facebook is already less important.”
An associate professor of IT management at California Lutheran University responded, “Amazon has great potential, but it has to start making money. Google has huge potential, but will have to pay attention to privacy issues. Apple will be a player primarily in devices and apps; it is not clear if it will be a player in content in the way that some of the others are.”
A professor at the University of Delaware, wrote, “I think Apple painted itself into a corner.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, “Amazon is successfully driven by profit. That will continue. Apple has good devices, but not earth-shaking. Facebook is static in innovation and on its way out. Your grandmother uses Facebook. One reads that the 16-to-18-year-old demographic has all but abandoned it. Google is pervasive and will continue to be so. Unfortunately it has lost track of its motto [Don’t be evil]. Microsoft: Sad, but it is out. It has only two products, really, and competition. Other US firms are really too broad a category to judge, and one really does not know how to respond. It includes everything from Dell to gaming companies Non-US firms: One is willing to accept that the next piece of software will come from India, China, or Russia.”
A PhD candidate studying newsworthiness in online and traditional media commented, “This is a complete shot in the dark, but I suspect non-US firms and at least one US firm will emerge.”
An associate professor at the University of Illinois-Urbana-Champaign wrote, “Amazon, Google and other firms that focus on augmented reality, product services, data mining, and learning analytics will all have an impact on our education system, consumerism, and politics. Healthcare will change mostly in the area of robotics for surgery, telemedicine/health, and commerce.”
A lecturer and researcher at a public university in Australia wrote, “I can only comment on the way trends seem to work already. As for Amazon, I see it continuing to provide a middleman service for a whole range of goods as well as a forum for reviews and discussion. Facebook is already being viewed by the younger generation as a bit naff, since older people are now using it as much as they are, and it is going the way of MySpace. Google already has a stranglehold on many Internet-mediated areas of life, and I do not see any reason that this will diminish, unless sovereign rights are used against it and rightful taxes demanded of it—certain international pressures regarding ‘free’ trade might lessen this likelihood, and so Google should continue to reap the benefits of its self-interested behaviour. I used to see Microsoft as the company most likely to set up its own banking and credit system, but its influence will wane in the face of competition from those ‘other’ companies, both US and non-US, that will employ new technology, software, research, and new brains to influence our lives.”
An activist Internet user replied, “While all of the ‘colossus companies’ will be more important over time, the most important player in 2015 has not yet emerged—the largest effect will come from an unexpected source.”
An assistant professor at the London School of Economics wrote, “One lesson so far is that business seems to be more inherently conservative than consumers. Hence it seems likely that companies like Google and Microsoft will continue to thrive. Facebook’s position is more tenuous perhaps because it relies on fashion-driven consumers. Two other developments are worth mentioning. First, many of these firms might develop and diversify in surprising new ways. Recent focus on robotics for example could ultimately lead to becoming powerful defence contractors, for example (in this sense, Internet companies might mirror the trajectory of turn of the century titans like General Electric). Second, the de-Westernisation of the Internet might lead to rise of alternative rivals from other parts of the world, such as Weibo.”
An anonymous survey participant wrote, “The corporations that can insinuate themselves into our daily lives, such as Google and Amazon, will be more likely to exert greater power. More obviously technological (Apple) and obviously social (Facebook) will face greater market challenges. Of course there are definitely going to be other players from completely unexpected quarters.”
A researcher and graphic designer replied, When I indicate that they ‘Will stay the same’ I think they will continue to be at the top of the market of their industry and will grow with the technology. There is money to be made for them if they do. Amazon provides human connections now in addition to software connections. I can’t imagine what technology will offer in 11 years from now. In some ways our well-being might be enhanced, in other ways there will always be a glitch that will be detrimental to an individual’s unique situation.”
The executive director of a mid-sized public library said, “Google and Amazon are the top two right now with enough cash to buy anything interesting. I expect them to maintain their dominance and compete with one another for the coming decade. While Apple is loaded with cash it is losing its way and will need four to six years of strong leadership to find its course again.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, “Google and Amazon are the companies with the vision. The baton has been passed. It used to be Microsoft and Apple. Apple is really not a visionary company. It is simply the Rolex watch of tech. The real tech innovation, besides overpriced consumer gadgets, is coming from Google and Amazon. Microsoft is probably doomed and has become IBM. It will be around but only big business will be using its outdated stuff. It simply doesn’t innovate. There is certainly a company that doesn’t exist today that will become the next Google.”
An information science professional at the College of the Bahamas wrote, “Innovation is the key. Being able to re-invent and be ahead of the wave is paramount. Facebook does only one thing. Amazon keeps changing. After you have an Apple phone, how many do you need?”
A solutions consultant for a software provider to banks replied, “The probability of a current company still being important is low. These companies will defend the turf they have created. Apple is starting to see this slide. Amazon will see it too. The innovation will come from disruptors in non-US firms as they have more to gain and less to lose.”
An anonymous respondent replied, “Google and Amazon are basically already in control of the planet. Google in particular will continue to reach into as many spheres as possible, and the data it already has access to could have huge positive impacts on all the spheres listed.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, “Apple is by far the trend-setter. The phone companies depend on their products to lead consumers in their direction for mobile service and the tablets are in high use; Microsoft has always been the ‘business office’ product of the workforce, and the fun, cool stuff has been developed by Apple. I hope to see continued cool devices and software that I never knew I needed developed. Google is the major player in how we use the Internet. If it stays simple, functional, and user-friendly it will always be the browser/search engine of choice for the majority. But, it dips into areas that maybe it should leave to other companies, i.e. scanning books, etc. Facebook will be replaced by something soon—yet to be determined. As the one non-Facebook person in the world I just don’t see the relevance for using it other than honing my skills to becoming a better voyeur. Skype and services that have relevance for communication across all geographic boundaries have relevance continuing far into the future.”
A freelance science/medical writer and communications director for a state government agency wrote, “There will be something new, some upstart who, like Apple or Microsoft, will bring a radically different approach and idea to the marketplace that we now can’t imagine. Twelve years is a long time in tech years.”
A new-media communications specialist at a public university commented, “Google is likely to succeed for its ambition to provide universal wireless. Amazon because they have the infrastructure in place to expand—I do almost all of my shopping there and I think they will be a major threat to entertainment (Netflix, cable television). Apple will remain strong in its artistic innovation. What will happen in the realm of health care, I am not sure. In light of privacy revelations most people I know feel very wary about mixing health records and technology.”
A director of entertainment marketing replied, “All of these companies are providing cutting-edge technology and they all ebb and flow with the general public regarding popularity. I think Samsung is another one to watch (non-US with heavy influence in US) and Sony also seems to be making a comeback in some key areas. I think of this as being similar to the car industry. The US carmakers led the pack for many years and they let their quality diminish. This allowed the foreign manufacturers take over and although US companies are making a comeback they still have a long way to go to gain back consumer confidence. Right now companies like Google, Apple and Microsoft are doing well, however if they still expect to lead the way they can’t let up especially since Samsung and others are right on their tails.”
A state government library advisor wrote, “Google and Amazon have established themselves in the public mind and are ready to commercially embrace all of our needs—they have a good start on any other competitor and the money to buy up anything that looks promising, especially Google. With the world economy growing more powerful, I would not be surprised to see come companies outside the US taking the lead in new areas.”
A distance-learning specialist for a government organization wrote, “Amazon and Google will play a bigger role because they are already innovating for the future. Apple and Microsoft will go by the wayside—their software is old and outdated. Ideas have moved beyond them. The only reason they are still even around is because of the amount of money people have invested in them—in software for Microsoft—especially businesses and in Apple in apps and iTunes. I think other US firms will become bigger. Facebook will become less important because the novelty is already wearing off—it is already mainly grandparents keeping in touch with grandkids. Something newer and more interactive will come along.”
A research scientist for a major American media company replied, “Amazon as a company (because of Jeff Bezos) has the most orientation towards the future, and the extension of their market share. Google will have the most info on us. Apple cares more about profit margin than market share, this can only keep them in a niche. Facebook is one major privacy mistake away from losing their customers. Microsoft is already irrelevant.”
A retired senior analyst for the IT department of a major insurance company, wrote, “The shift to non-US firms is a fact of demography and development. The firms develop where the structures make the development most profitable, and this does not seem to be in the US. Google’s technology is not yet at its zenith. Amazon is purely distribution and it will get concurrents but I believe it will be able to cope. Microsoft is in a position where it can only lose because there is nothing above. Indeed this is a dangerous position, reference Nokia. Social network are in my view the fact of a generation and will be changed of wiped by the next, Apple is a momentarily winner, and like Microsoft can only loose, because from the summit you can only descend.”
An information science professional wrote, “The ability to truly analyze what will bring amazement and satisfaction and then find a way to deliver that will be critical. Just the fact that Amazon started talking about using drones to deliver goods shows that there is creative thinking going on in that company. Companies that deliver the “same-old” may just fade away.”
An information science professional responded, “There will be shifts in general operating systems to ones that are nimble, fluid, and open source. People will be more confident in mixing and matching systems. This opens up room for other firms to insert themselves into the marketplace. I would hope for more interest in technology for civic life rather than consumption. That mean the rise of other firms that connect people and communities rather than large consumer-based firms.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, “Amazon and Google have shown that they are innovative companies that are re-inventing themselves on a regular basis and are not afraid to investigate and explore new and different technologies, different services, etc. The others have stumbled in various ways over the last few years and no longer appear to be in the advance of technological innovation. I would expect Amazon and Google to continue viewing the world of technology with open vision and embracing concepts that other companies dismiss too readily. What impact they will have will depend upon what new services they can dream up and successfully implement. I would expect that they would continue to investigate providing their own content and faster, more efficient methods of delivering services and products. I would also anticipate that they would take on more services that will be limited only by their companies’ imagination and technological abilities.”
The editor in chief or an international digital trade journal responded, “Google and Amazon both are well-positioned to take over a networked planet.”
A technology developer and administrator commented, “Facebook will quickly fade. Amazon’s distribution model will only continue to improve.”
A 30-year veteran of software design, testing, and deployment for the US Department of Defense replied, “I hope sincerely that the new age ushers in an advance in mathematics, science, and engineering. And I also hope that this results in new technology industries in the US. That is where Apple, Microsoft, and Google need to play an important role. If we are to have significant advances in commerce, politics, education, and health care it seems that these companies must work very hard to influence the education of our own young people in the US. I am constantly impressed with the abilities of the students in Japan, China, and India. We need to have the technology companies invest in our own young people by significantly increasing their presence in elementary and high school. We need to win the technology race, as we won the space race under President Kennedy. We need another visionary.”
An entrepreneur and business leader said, “Government will discover technology. It will bring more services and in some places enslave citizens. Shopping will be almost exclusively online. We will curate our lives. We will have extreme control but it won’t really make us happier.”
A self-employed author, researcher, and consultant wrote, “Innovation is key, regardless of origin.”
A US federal government employee commented, “Apple and Facebook have reached a saturation point.”
The manager of channel partners for a company that provides online town hall meetings wrote, “There will be Internet-leveraging corporations in China and in India (or with operations within these countries) that will arise as the most influential and, or powerful in 2025.”
A PhD candidate at the University of Quebec in Montreal said, “Google has Ray Kurzweil. Apple has Jonathan Ive!”
An executive in a consulting firm advising on change management replied, “Probably the most powerful ones have not yet been started.”
The social media manager for a broadband company responded, “Amazon is the established ecommerce leader. Apple the established tech leader. Google the established search leader. Microsoft is losing ground.”
A PhD student at the University of Kansas, replied, “Amazon is about to go into beast-mode. It already has as big of a footprint as Target, but I would be willing to predict that its business model will become the primary rival to Walmart, and may actually prompt Walmart to change its approach.”
The CEO and editor in chief of an international media services company wrote, “Organised crime will play far greater roles in control. Consumer habits will become better informed and more cautious. Government control will of necessity devolve to more and more local levels. But large multinationals and global enterprises in energy, health, crime, financial, movement will become the biggest industries.”
A self-employed communications consultant commented, “You left out the providers of network infrastructure, which have the capacity to ruin everything.”
A university faculty member wrote, “I suspect they don’t exist yet. Human connection, commerce will be the big winners. Also health care.”
A social media consultant replied, “People are getting bored. The big dogs will continue to bore people, and new, exciting innovations will be made by companies the mainstream may not have even heard of yet. Though, there will be necessity for these big dogs, they will just have different stature as others evolve. In the near future, influencers will be those that allow things to be easier for humans and organizations—solving pain points. Leaders will appeal graphically, and in ways that encourage efficiency with data. Devices that can produce big results will get smaller. Education may see ways for all students to learn more cost-effectively if politics does not get in the way.”
A senior strategic planner at a mid-sized business replied, “Facebook always seems to put the needs of its users last, and takes for granted that they will never leave. Most users seem to feel trapped because of the site’s pervasive influence today. If and when a credible alternative emerges, many will likely leave the site. (Note how eager many were to jump to Google+ initially, although G+ was not compelling enough to ultimately keep these new users engaged.)”
An information science professional wrote, “If Amazon and Google continue to be savvy in their practice they will be more important. While companies like Microsoft and Apple won’t disappear, as developments shift towards cloud-based technology, etc., hardware companies might not gain a great deal of influence. Facebook will likely lose ground, in my opinion, because, unlike Google, it’s not diversifying enough and it’s facing competition in the niche it fills.”
An information science professional commented, “The US will no longer be the leader in tech success as we have already matured the market and only look at the well off. India and China know how to use the Internet to get information to its users via cell phones and no desktops, no computers. Google and Amazon will do well because they will continue to index the Internet and it’s offerings. They have made themselves a backbone and what others compare themselves to, just as Morton’s Salt did 160+ years ago.”
A self-employed digital engagement strategist responded, “Amazon will buy up competitors and amass even more buying and spending power. Apple has shown the way but other companies will do what it does even better in terms of innovation Facebook: the tide is already turning against it, and younger demographics are starting to use it less. Google will continue to dominate and even rise in importance as it ‘controls’ and monitors our online Internet usage. Microsoft—not sure, really, so I said it ‘will stay the same.’ Non-US firms will rise in importance, for instance, Israeli firms, Chinese, and other parts of the world innovating in mobile app, production, etc.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, “Amazon will continue to be a dominant player along with Google and Microsoft. Apple will probably diversify its products, making some of them less elitist in order to reach a growing worldwide consumer population that may not always have the means to an Apple product. Facebook will reinvent itself to keep its users interested. It will continue to provide reasons why it is better to be on Facebook than on any other social network website. In 2025 all of these companies will continue to be dominant players for the simple reason that they learned and continue to learn from other less successful companies of the last 14 years.”
A librarian and instructor at a primarily online university replied, “The Snowden leak already has cost the US IT and related industry billions (e.g., Boeing’s recent loss of a $4.5 billion contract with the Brazilian government), and as evidence of collusion with the NSA continues to mount, it will cause permanent harm. Some of these firms (e.g., Amazon) are likely positioned in a way that they will be able to continue to grow or maintain their current market share—but the future of online growth and innovation, such as it is, will begin to shift overseas.”
A market intelligence analyst for a medical publisher commented, “IBM and WatsonHealth and other Watson AI programs will be very important to industry and healthcare. Commerce will rely on Amazon, and so will delivery services. Drones are the dumbest idea I have ever head of. Apple will reinvent itself. I see Facebook as a source of privacy concerns and negatively impacted by regulations. Google controls so much intellectual content and access to it, it will continue to commercialize that access. Google experiments, and that means it could “find the next big thing.” I do not have enough info on non-US firms.”
An information science professional replied, “It is inevitable that another company will make a splash, and that international talent will bring us something new and powerful.”
A marketing executive working in the high-tech industry since the early 1970s said, “Amazon is a winner from the perspective that it has harnessed the Internet for commerce and that is where the money is. Apple needs to invest along with Microsoft in advanced technologies and neither company (while successful) have been really bleeding edge in the last decade or so. Google appears to be poised to take technology to the next level, besting both Apple and Microsoft. I believe Google along with the best and brightest brains on planet Earth will create apps and solutions for the future, things that do not currently exist as I write this today. I believe non-US firms will proliferate, because the current business climate in the US is restrictive. These non-US firms will more than likely be owned by US entrepreneurs doing business out of the territorial boundaries, laws and taxation of the US government.”
An information science professional commented, “I’m not sure that people in 2025 will still be calling it ‘the Internet’ the way we do now. It will be a utility like power and water. It will be a necessity. Companies that foster human connection, or the illusion of it, will get bigger, those that don’t will shrink. Commerce, politics, education, and health care are all part of that human connection.”
An information science professional concentrating on the healthcare field replied, “Amazon and Google will wield more influence. My concern is that Google’s power and influence is based on a lower quality standard. But lower standards have become acceptable and this is disappointing. The quickest source is all that matters today and that approach will become more prevalent in 2025.”
A self-employed digital consultant based in Sao Paulo, Brazil, wrote, “The major company at 2025 hasn’t been born yet.”
A publisher of technology, business, and health guides, wrote, “Microsoft and Apple are dinosaurs dreamed up during the golden age of personal computers. They are less relevant in the mobile era, and I am not convinced they can survive in a future built on massive networked applications.”
The Web marketing manager at a major Chicago academic medical center replied, “Amazon has built a wide and effective infrastructure and it caters well to its customers. This will continue. Apple will stay great, but I am not ready to say it will be more important unless it definitely keeps innovating ‘Steve-style.’ Facebook? Meh. Google is already taking great leaps outside its usual business and will continue to do so. Microsoft is quickly becoming irrelevant as other apps and businesses find ways to be more nimble in Microsoft’s dominated space. No one wants a Microsoft phone. Word and Excel will be outpaced soon. Chinese, Korean and European firms will gain dominance (Samsung, Ikea).”
A businessperson in the medical technologies sector wrote, “Amazon will remain the primary shopping network. Apple product innovation will wane. Foreign companies and startups will develop innovative new technologies and products to replace Apple devices. Microsoft will have either turned itself around or relegate itself to software as a service primarily for the business community.”
An academic administrator and former foundation executive with responsibility for information technology replied, “Amazon and Google have more intelligence at the helm than Facebook. There will always be new companies on the rise. And they will not all be American. Twitter is important now, too, but they seem to lack intelligence in the same way as Facebook to manage well what they have.”
A retired college professor responded, “I don’t know, when I graduated from college in 1969 none of these companies existed. When I finished grad school with three master’s degrees in different areas in 1996 all were operating, being talked about, or being conceived. They may all be wrong or all gone the ways of the buggy whip, rotary-dial phone, or hand-cranked started on a car.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, “I would also think brands like Qualcomm and others that make the hardware will still be in the mix.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, “Samsung will revolutionise our universe.”
An information science professional replied, “Apple and Facebook are already having problems with people leaving face book and Apple computers having a lot of problems. Google is still widely used as well as Amazon and US and Non-US firms may be replacing Apple and Facebook, which will increase their importance.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, “Apple will grow because it has the iDevice market, which consistently creates (and charges for) a premium user experience; and Google because it makes money while sharing technology to allow others to adopt its innovations. Microsoft has carved itself a niche that could become a coffin unless it grows more flexible about doing the same. Other firms (US and non-US) will step in to fill the gaps between these existing corporations, and in their time, as Facebook has,, serve the purpose of meeting an immediate but temporary need for a communication forum.”
A retired educator with a PhD said, “Some non-U.S. firms will evolve into being US firms, to take advantage of our social/legal construct. Not sure if TheCluetrain Manifesto provides an answer or not, but there is a need for companies that are not guided by primitive financial rules. Firms that make decisions that are based on ideals or visions will out perform those that are guided by linear financial models. The winners will be those firms that move people away from dependence on the Net for their social ‘feedback’, while getting them to connect with ‘neighbors’ in person.”
A retired management consultant for a large international corporation commented, “Other US and non-US firms will emerge, possibly eclipsing the current leaders, possibly developing new opportunities that can also be capitalized upon by current leaders.”
A pastor who describes himself as active in the TEA Party in the US commented, “Ten years ago MySpace was the rage and today it is not even listed on surveys like this one. The leading companies of 2025 have not yet been founded.”
A leader of a major non-profit grassroots organization in California replied, “Customization will become even stronger.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, “I don’t think anything will become less important.”
A futurist, consultant, and industry analyst responded, “Samsung is a great example of a hardware firm not mentioned on this short list. It is already close to being the largest tech company in the world. Apple’s platform and proprietary nature will keep it smaller than Samsung. Google’s scale is already impressive. By 2025 it will have dominated the others as a software player.”
A fundraising consultant wrote, “Apple and Google will remain as predominant providers in 2025, however, there will be new firms that will capitalize on emerging technologies such as virtual Internet access.”
A multiscreen (mobile + PC) shopper analyst for eBay wrote, “Google and Amazon will grow in importance because they already have the entire user as part of their consideration set—Google more so than Amazon. I don’t think Microsoft and Apple focus as much on the user as they do on their end products. Facebook has been a great influencer so far, but I don’t believe it can sustain the Facebook environment to keep people there forever. It seems to be a fad that has peaked. I also believe there’s an inherent limiting factor with companies that get too big. They have more difficulty moving quickly, breaking trends, and being innovative. In addition, the overwhelming amount of regulations in the US makes it difficult to change.”
A retired senior technical consultant at Cisco and IBM wrote, “Anyone currently today not already deeply involved in cloud technology will be diminished rapidly. Whoever can most successfully monetize the 2025 infrastructure will thrive.”
A former DuPont electrical engineer responsible for international electro-mechanical product safety compliance commented, “To me any company that makes information immediately available as we’re looking to review it will rise to the top. I think innovation companies like Apple will continue to be flashes in the pan with a rapid rise to prominence but a painful decay to once great (like Blackberry—for Apple it’s the second time in the spotlight, with Apple computers being the first decades ago). I expect companies that provide access to a broad range of goods and services, like Amazon, will become significant. Facebook was great when it started because it permitted interpersonal connectivity but I see folks have now realized just how much of a privacy invasion that actually is so I expect it to still be present but very much more limited.”
A social science research supervisor commented, “Human connection will distance as artificial advancement lurches forward.”
An information science masters student commented, “Amazon will be a success as long as it continues to provide access to almost any product at fair prices and back it up with customers support they will continue to grow at modest pace. Apple might innovate into the future or it might decline without its leader [Steve Jobs]. Facebook is already declining in use, with a failure to innovate. Google owns so much data about so many people it could just keep selling that for the next 20 years and be profitable. On the whole Microsoft will continue to decline as it has, US firms will decline, and we will see great advances and innovation from China.”
A business professional replied, “The word ‘corporate’ here is the misnomer. Corporations in general will continue to lose their influence on our lives unless they are able to remain agile. That is difficult when they continue to answer to their shareholders instead of their stakeholders. Facebook had an enormous impact on our lives. As soon as it went corporate it lost the flavor of what made it so big and opened the door for competition like Snapchat will shifts the influence. The most powerful will be the new, innovative companies that continue to emerge. Many will be in Asia and India. Even more powerful will be the individual—who in a socially connected world holds more influence than ever before.”
A consultant for nonprofit organizations wrote, “Amazon will continue to invent new ways for the consumer to buy. Apple and Google will continue to define new ways to communicate and use technology. Every aspect of life will be influenced by these three companies. Non-US firms with their highly educated workforce and big investments into technology—China with robotics taught in elementary school already—will capture the market.”
A director at a college in Maryland wrote, “Eleven years is a long time and seems likely to me that Facebook will not necessarily still be around or have the same level of participation. The named companies on the list will probably still be around but I think it is hard to determine whether they will be more powerful. It seems inevitable that other companies will appear during this time.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, “Google and Amazon are probably the most influential today. They will still be around in he future (like Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft), and will probably be more influential. However, they too will be disrupted by other firms with new technologies we haven’t thought of yet.”
A CIO in higher education commented, “All current companies in technology will be disrupted in 10 years. The possible exceptions will be Google, Microsoft and/or Amazon. As long as these companies continue to understand disruption and stay ahead of the curve, they will stay technology influencers. Many other US and non-US firms will come on the scene, displacing Facebook and Apple. Companies that understand the integration of the human condition and technology extensions of us will be influencers in every area of life.”
A university professor wrote, “As we are moving toward a global village, companies worldwide can succeed if they want to and if they are creative enough to succeed. The majority of the companies that you mention on the list are ‘yesterday.’ Google has the resources to be creative; Amazon has been a part of human lives too deeply.”
A professional who works for a nonprofit social services provider replied, “Google is amassing huge amounts of power by obtaining and using our information. It is to the point that Google can predict a flu outbreak by aggregating search terms. We are already dependent on Google to discover what we want, where it’s located, how to get it, and what to expect once we have it. Access to information is at our fingertips, instantly and constantly. If this is leveraged in education, if access to higher education can be made available to all, we just may become competitive as a county again. At the same time, I envision devolution of the human brain as we rely more on instant availability of information, there is no need for our brains to retain basic knowledge. If not the brain is not used eventually we will lose the ability. The younger it starts, the more danger it poses. The ways that the human brain learns and functions will change. Young children will very likely see a decrease in the ability to remember. The brain functions and intelligence quotients will undoubtedly change. Companies that capitalize on decreasing our need to think and remember will then find ways to sell us products to make up for this loss. We will all be encouraged to learn remotely, and human ability to socialize and interact will suffer greatly.”
A management consultant commented, “Amazon offers unique services that are Internet dependent—elastic cloud and so on. None of the other firms extend engagement with the Internet beyond the trivial although I suspect the research and development savvy of firms such as Microsoft, HP, IBM will become important again by 2025 (although the names may change).”
A principal librarian for regional and rural library services in Australia responded, “They will be software/app firms, not infrastructure firms, providing education, commerce, some health care, and certainly human connectedness.”
An entrepreneur and business leader said, “The companies with the most data about individuals and about various demographic and psychographic groups will melt through the mass of communications to reach humans. As AI is introduced to use that data to give those humans a personalized experience, it may satisfy some humans—perhaps the humans who have been conditioned not to want human interaction. I see more and more perception of connection without engaging human senses. I can’t see that stopping, but I have no doubt every one of those humans will find their boundaries. It might not mean backlash against Big Data-driven corporations. There might just be points of refusal beyond which the humans won’t go. Of all of the companies listed, Google seems to have the greatest chance to test the real boundaries of power and importance because they are digging more deeply into human need. No company will stay the same. How could that even happen? When has that ever happened?”
An independent consultant specializing in research issues relating to aging wrote, “Amazon: More important for marketing and logistics innovations than book/product distribution. Apple: Living off incremental improvements to its products. Not a bad thing, but… Facebook: Not rated. I personally consider Facebook a waste of time and a time waster. Google: Advertising has diminished the utility of the Google search engine, but innovations in other areas will promote the Google brand (e.g., driverless car; Google Glass). Anticipate Microsoft-like lawsuits as Google becomes too big within its space. Microsoft: As applications move from computer to cloud Microsoft will still be significant as it improves ubiquitous software, but I do not anticipate major breakthroughs in software, perhaps in smartphone and tablet applications. US firms: They are still leaders in innovation/creativity—AI, technology, robotics. The US still presents one of best climates to support innovation and entrepreneurial activity. But it will be hard-pressed to maintain this as a long-term position unless the educational system steps up. Non-US firms: There will be an increasing challenge from Brazil, Russia, India, and China, but social and governmental challenges/shortcomings will inhibit true innovation. Western Europe/EU (especially Germany, Scandinavia, and France will continue to be significant players.”
A marketing research analyst responded, “Nike, Sony, and other large companies will be joining the Frey. The way we shop and interact with companies will be very different and online. I think it will improve to be more specific to our needs. The improvement of devices will improve health care but I believe politics will be similar to the way it is now but more global.”
A chief evangelist for Brazil for a global IT company that is based in the US commented, “Google, Facebook, Apple, and Amazon will dictate the way of life.”
A digital analyst for a publishing company replied, “As companies increase in size they become less innovative, less flexible, and slower.”
A regional sales director for a business wrote, “Amazon, Apple, and Google will continue to innovate and stay ahead of the curve while Facebook and Microsoft will fall behind as we see youth seeking out the next cool thing or hot tech item. As these kids come of age, they will push the limits of what is possible and allow the US to be a step ahead of the rest of the world.””
An employee at a US-based, state, public university wrote, “The US political system will likely inhibit growth (as it does today) and non-US firms will continue to thrive.”
An Internet marketer commented, “Apple has run out of evolutionary technology to release. It is just releasing the same product in different sizes now and relying on independent developers to design apps that evolve instead. Microsoft is dying. As soon as Office and servers run on alternative technology Microsoft will only exist as a boutique software company. Google and Facebook are creating universal profiles to target ads (and everything else) per individual and this will become the main identification on the Internet for both people and the companies selling to you. Complicated algorithms that mimic the real world decision-making processes will make this possible. I think universal health records companies like Epic will be epic. I think companies in China will play a greater role here and may pose a national security risk. There may be some companies we have never heard of that become extremely important in the US and abroad, but it is getting more difficult to get a startup off the ground these days.”
The director of financial stability and workforce development for a medium-sized nonprofit commented, “It’s important to recognize that other countries are currently placing greater emphasis on science and technology education for their children and youth than the US. They will increasingly generate and own innovations that will take place on the Internet. These countries already see this innovation as a means to increase their influence and impact globally.”
The digital manager and member of the computing professionals’ honor society commented, “With Amazon’s proposition of drones and shipping it could be one of the most important companies in 2025. If Amazon is investing in this technology now and it can provide an affordable service, then other companies may be left in the dust. Google could become even more important just because of the amount of data it has about all of us. Facebook could just be a trend now. Apple and Microsoft don’t seem to be the leading technology companies that they once were.”
A business professional, wrote, “Facebook will become obsolete well before 2025, and will be replaced by technologies provided by emerging and new US firms. And while I am a daily user of products and technologies provided by all of the colossus companies on the list, these companies cannot go on forever. Even now we see huge threats to Microsoft, and Google is threatened by such products as Firefox. Of course I am suggesting a worse-case scenario for these companies, which, at best, will stay the same. New products and technologies will emerge from other US firms to replace the products and technologies offered today by the big companies.”
A middle manager in the digital division of a public media company responded, “Success = Device + software + network + service. Yes.”
A professor at a large public university wrote, “The successful companies of 2025 don’t exist yet. Microsoft is already becoming a dinosaur and young kids are ‘so over’ Facebook. Amazon and Google will thrive because of their unique positions in the marketplace. Apple may hang on, at least until all of the hipsters figure out they are paying a premium for a machine that plenty of others can duplicate for a lot less money.”
A certified nonprofit fundraising executive commented, “All of these entities are important and will become moreso in time. It is entirely possible that Amazon will take over the US Postal Service. Older generations are more comfortable with—as Blackbaud says—‘meat and potatoes’ social media—and Facebook lies at the center of that. China is a steadily rising powerhouse, as is Korea. It will have a growing effect on both new tech developments and the markets generally. Last but not least, there are more companies not yet formed, that will launch to meet new tech demands.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, “Apple will be successful: Read the Steve Jobs biography. This sums up how Apple changed several industries already, like music.”
A self-employed Web designer/developer and writer responded, “Microsoft and Apple will have a hard time keeping up in the coming years. They are playing it safe in many cases, though I don’t think everyone sees it that way. Amazon and Google are still willing to try and fail and not become afraid due to their failure; I do wonder if Google will be able to remain that way over the next 10 years, though. Other, smaller firms will continue to innovate and sometimes succeed with their innovations. Facebook will be dead, I think, just because so many people actually hate dealing with it. A time is coming, too, when there will be a backlash against the manufacturing policies of some of the tech giants.”
A professor at the University of Pittsburgh wrote, “The only companies on the list that have any chance of being a dominant factor in 2025 are Amazon and Google. Assuming that the US government enforces existing anti-trust laws, neither will be able to maintain the competitive advantages enjoyed today, owing to organizational inertia, increasing conservative approaches to management, etc.”
A retiree replied, “You’d think Google would get nailed for monopolistic practices as Microsoft has. The practice of medicine could easily become a function of differential computation. (Does differential computation exist as an entity? LOL). So much of this, if it is to positively benefit humanity, will depend on what we will and will not accept as ‘good’ (whatever good is).”
A professor at the University of Colorado wrote, “Whoever can understand the interconnectedness of the world—such as the advent of more testing in pre-collegiate education becomes the ‘need’ for companies to develop tests and sell them to school districts and track the results of students—will be more powerful than companies that do not see these links. Addressing challenges from climate change will also affect which companies are able to move forward and which are caught migrating issues from new weather patterns.”
A marketing and business consultant commented, “The US lost its place as the mainstay of manufacturing that it held in the last 100 years and has sped ahead in the Internet and technology world, influencing consumers on a global scale. Other countries are attempting to catch up, but will probably remain in a lagging position for quite some time. Other US firms are investing time and money in continued technology efforts and are therefore being encouraged to be the next ‘Apple’ ‘Google’ or ‘Facebook’. These companies are investing in the technology staff and expertise, and that is the key.”
A professional educator commented, “While Internet shopping is convenient, people still enjoy the social aspect of shopping. Amazon cannot replace the human need to interact with other humans. Amazon also assumes that shopping is mechanistic, devoid of pleasure. Shopping gratifies certain human needs that go beyond the material thing itself. Regarding Apple: Competitors will gradually eke away at Apple’s dominance. Other than ideas, Apple doesn’t do anything productive. Regarding Google and Microsoft: Both continue re-inventing themselves. Their respective success is predicated on an uncanny ability to know what people want before they want it. Regarding other firms, US and abroad: The US’ innovative edge will continue while that of others lags.”
A lawyer working on technology issues replied, “People are always looking for the next new thing, so whoever creates the newer/better/faster tool will win the race (even if a well-established competitor comes up with the same thing).”
An instructional system designer based in Texas wrote, “The companies that can most quickly adapt to consumer desire for connectedness, responsiveness, collaboration, and ability to create and share information will emerge as the dominant companies.”
A professor at the University of Massachusetts-Boston predicted, “The life of companies is short. We do know this. We will see new companies evolving.”
An author, communication consultant, and historian wrote, “History has shown that companies rise, hold sway for a period of time and then fade unless they find a way to reinvent themselves. In 2025, the most powerful Internet-leveraging-and-influencing companies—with the exception of Apple—will most likely be companies that are either little known or do not yet exist. These companies will have a profound impact on all aspects of life.”
An information science professional replied, “The Internet expands ways to do business from local ‘places’ to the ‘world.’ Countries/people can work together without meeting in person. Most commerce will be done via the Internet. Physical stores will close. Right now malls are being torn down for other uses. People will become more isolated in their alternate realities. It will be more difficult to make human connections and interact in person. Language is changing due to texting and Internet use. Words/thoughts are shortened. Companies that capitalize on fostering communication, enterprise, and things to make life easier will succeed.”
A government-based cultural technology research analyst wrote, “I’m guessing that there will be other firms that will come out of nowhere and surprise us. Already we’ve seen technologies develop that have changed people’s lives greatly, and in many cases, we wouldn’t have anticipated it. My guess would be that firms that develop technologies that assist seniors will have some success. As for the companies that will be ‘less important,’ I’m guessing that Apple has had its moment in the sun, and unless it develops some new device the iPhone and iPad will be its legacy (which other companies now have learned from). Facebook is already decreasing in popularity and people will have less use for it.”
An administrative staffer for a major US foundation commented, “I see Amazon completely taking over online shopping, through purchasing and integration of smaller websites, along with expanding the types of products it carries and the delivery options. Apple and Google will play off of each other and continue at their current helter-skelter pace of producing new products and operating systems. I think Facebook will try to keep its current level of usership, and may succeed, but I doubt that its influence will grow over current levels. Microsoft is already losing influence, and I doubt it will be able to regain it.”
An employee of a large US research organization wrote, “Amazon, Apple, and Google will continue to be influential because they have demonstrated their abilities to branch out, go beyond where they have been successful, and carve out new markets before any market research or user studies. Disruptive innovations will come out of nowhere within the next few years, from both inside and outside of the United States.”
A senior Web designer for the State of Oregon responded, “Amazon is the most innovative company in the business-to-consumers space. Apple seems to have lost its edge, along with Facebook, and Google is always going to be ahead of the development curve of new ideas. Microsoft is losing out, not innovating or bringing good new products to market. I am not sure about other US and non-US companies.”
A consultant for a major religious organization wrote, “Amazon will control most of our commerce. Apple will languish without the innovative spirit and drive of Jobs. Facebook is already on the decline. Google will grow in dominance in the communications industry. Microsoft has been on life support for a long time. It will merge with one of the others. Non-US firms will dominate over US firms as we lose ground due to economic inequality and instability. We are training a dumb workforce and won’t be able to compete with China, India, and other powerful Asian countries.”
An education technology researcher working in a science center wrote, “Those companies that figure out a joint strategy in modern knowledge publishing, e-commerce, and media delivery services will outweigh those that are hardware platform providers. There will be some competition from international firms.”
A freelance writer, author and journalist, and website creator/maintainer commented, “I can’t really say which will be the most powerful companies and what they will do. I don’t believe anybody can. I have been involved with the Internet/Web since 1992 and have not seen a very successful track rate in predicting the future of technologies.”
A university-based teacher and data scientist responded, “Watch Google. This is what they are doing. Watch Oracle too.”
An online news producer commented, “The best of Google and Amazon in one global and dominant firm. It could be not American. Chinese?”
An educational technologist at a regional university in the US wrote, “Cloud computing will be more distributed and large firms will have less advantage of mega serve.”
A professor of information systems at University of Poitiers, France, responded, “As long as we need goods, Amazon will deliver them, and we are still waiting for competitors. Apple and Facebook live on their reputations, which can be volatile. Applications are becoming a commodity, even online, that’s for Microsoft. For Google, I see a lowered importance of its ‘traditional’ markets and I don’t know if its new strategy in robotics will be a success.”
A strategy and business intelligence manager for a major city library in the US responded, “Amazon and Google will continue to grow in importance because they are always experimenting with new ideas. They also discard ideas fairly quickly that don’t work out well. I’m not sure that Apple can sustain the loss of Steve Jobs and its insistence on proprietary software. Microsoft is also floundering but is well entrenched in American business practices. Other firms will come and go. They may incubate exciting new ideas and products but will sell out to the ‘big boys’ when it’s time to roll out nationally or internationally.”
An information science professional based in Colorado responded, “Amazon will succeed due to its partnership with vendors, its ease of use; it is one of the first thing people think about for purchasing something. Apple—again, ease of use—intuitive—adapts to fit what people desire. Google—ease of use and its welcoming approach to adapting to all devices. Facebook—unless it comes up with a hybrid of Skype and Facebook into one, it really will remain the same. Already our human connection has diminished since it is easier to text than speak to each other. The belief that body language is the largest part of communication and these companies have produced devices that eliminate that form of communication is easy for people to understand each other less. Commenting on Facebook is more or less a billboard of opinion—people do communicate, but with less thought put into it.”
The website manager for an Australian lobbying organization replied, “Amazon does not drive innovative design—it leverages the advances made by others, and it is very good at this. I think that important new technology developments could come from India and China due to the growing number of skilled designers and coders there, and the entrepreneurial spirit and willingness to take a risk on a new idea of many young coders there. In countries such as the US, UK, AU, and NZ, open source software and open data will drive new online services and advances in health, education, lifestyle, and politics. There is likely to be pushback on this from traditional businesses, but well-developed services and apps with good user experiences will demonstrate that the future is here and it is widely and openly distributed.”
A healthcare entrepreneur replied, “Companies and governments that continue to lead consumers will be the winners. Others that merely respond to consumer demand will be left behind, particularly as new users come online and leapfrog technologies occur (example is mobile phones in Africa).”
A market-analysis professional wrote, “E-commerce will increase, social media will decline. The Internet will be a tool to help people in their everyday life, not used as much for fun anymore. There will be strong competition from Asian firms.”
The managing director of the consulting division at a major US-based digital, creative, and marketing company commented, “The most Internet-influencing corporations will be like Amazon, Apple, Zappos, and LinkedIn. The companies that continue to evolve and ensure their services are relevant to consumers will thrive. I believe we will really see the power of social harnessed in many different ways through market research, communities (both internal and external), product development, etc. As a result more and more companies that utilize social communities will have consumers attention, buy-in and remain relevant.”
A US government research professional responded, “Newer companies will disrupt the current, powerful companies, unless, like Google, larger companies buy out the disrupters and leverage their new technologies as their own. These will have a major impact on all the domains listed above, with huge implications for people’s increased connectedness to each other, their communities, and services but also with concerns for privacy.”
A researcher based at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government commented, “Google and Microsoft will have the greatest staying power, as they have the broadest portfolios of products, software and research ideas. Amazon, Apple, and Facebook must diversify if they are to stay relevant.”
The senior director for digital media at a healthcare nonprofit wrote, “The most influential are not yet born. And I believe in Apple’s ability to innovate—even without Steve Jobs.”
A professional who works for a US university public health program replied, “Facebook will be just one of many social networks and not the most highly used. Google+ will become more mainstream because Google is linking and integrating with everything. Consumers will want more integration to keep their tech life simple. E-commerce is also likely to change significantly, so consumers will be able to ‘try on’ clothes and accessories, etc., before purchasing them. Microsoft has slowed down its innovation while Apple continues to keep up. Other companies will emerge that will offer better ways to do everything and they will become the tech giants of tomorrow.”
A PhD candidate at the University of California-Berkeley School of Information wrote, “As it stands today, Facebook seems to add about as much noise to our lives as signal. There are signs the platform is starting to seriously struggle with negative network externalities—i.e., the larger the number who use it the less enjoyment people get from it. I’m not under the impression that the company has a vision for how to deal with this, and so I predict less relevance for Facebook over time. Apple, Amazon, and Google are ambitious companies that continue to bring products of real utility to market. I hope for a Microsoft resurgence, but I view it as unlikely.”
A supporter of the ICT entrepreneurship ecosystem in Europe wrote, “Disruptive innovation explains everything.”
A student at the University of Western Ontario responded, “I’m going to be optimisitic here and say that by 2025, we’ll start to see the benefits of the distributed nature of the Internet. The days of the large, dominant corporations might be nearing an end. This is for a couple of reasons: as wages decline and good jobs become more scarce, I see more people becoming more entrepreneurial out of necessity. I see more small-scale, local solutions. I see people turning away from large corporations as they continue to prove untrustworthy, and as the tools become easier to do things for yourself. I see more competition, not less, in the marketplace.”
A marketing and trend consultant wrote, “All Internet-key organizations of 2025 will do the following: Drive people communication and interaction. Tip scales towards more visual over verbal communication. Monetize.”
An online marketing professional for a medical publisher replied, “The future may belong to companies we haven’t even heard of yet. The most powerful companies will help facilitate new ways to communicate, to produce and consume information, make sense of information, etc. Maybe that’s Google I’m describing.”
A self-employed digital media researcher and consultant wrote, “Google’s record of innovation and scale suggests they will be able to keep up with future innovations and needs. Amazon will increasingly become the dominant online retailer.”
A self-employed media consultant, artist, and writer, responded, “Amazon as basically democratic market vehicle will grow the way that American Express did from its express-mail business in the 1850s. Apple without Jobs will become an ordinary company. Something will replace Facebook. Microsoft is already losing ground with its obsolete view of the future.”
A volunteer for a non-profit commented, “I can only predict continued failure of tech to impact social justice and socioeconomic issues because leaders will fail to effectively diversify.”
James Penrod, former CIO at four major US universities, replied, “Google will be even more important than now and there will be new American and other companies that become major players. I think Apple and Microsoft have staying power but I am not as optimistic for Facebook.”
Ken Elmore, an audience research and development strategist, commented, “Facebook will have to merge with a technology company to survive. Technology and the ability to communicate will grow the social footprint, but not in Facebook’s closed environment.”
A director for research at a major US private university commented, “The power is in the data and Amazon and Google have the data. The power is no longer in the object—Apple and Microsoft sell objects. Facebook will become the purview of adults (which it already is) as the young people move away from it—as it is their nature to move to the new. Companies we have not yet dreamed of could step in and gain a foothold in the data realm.”
A library director based in New York wrote, “Money talks. I can’t see Amazon, Apple and Microsoft going away. With their money and good leadership they will stay in the forefront of these developments. I hope that human connection, civic life, and education will still be human-based. Health care and commerce will be most impacted in the future.”
An information science professional commented, “Much depends on the vision and drive of the directors of the companies. With the right people at the helm, Amazon, Google, Apple, and Microsoft may continue to stay vital in a very fluid field. Facebook has a greater challenge because, historically, users tire of the same old thing and look for the next, better social interface. It will take major work on the part of Facebook’s leaders to stay relevant. Overall, virtual reality may become a platform of more importance as people seek a more interactive experience.”
An information science professional at Pennsylvania State University wrote, “There will always be new technologies to replace outdated ones. As students abandon things like Facebook, something new will probably take over. If Apple and Google stay innovative, they can be relevant. Someone else may be more revolutionary.”
An information science professional responded, “If communication—and being instantly ‘on’ all the time—is what the future looks like, the company that does that best will be king, for a little while. While Microsoft and Apple have been fighting it out since the start of the Internet, it was the other companies like Facebook (already losing ground) and Google that have made a bigger difference. Google is trying to cover all bases but may by 2025 become so big that it will lose to the smaller, more nimble companies. Amazon is increasingly facing backlash for things like not paying taxes and the public will lose interest in it and move to companies that are perceived to behave better. Non-US firms will become more important as money and power continues to shift to countries like China.”
An anonymous respondent replied, “The firms that invest in research and development and that create apps and other products that improve life will thrive.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, “The lifespan of ‘dot coms’ is usually not lengthy. The big players of today will have been replaced or significantly challenged by other start-ups in 2025, possibly from outside the US. Facebook is already declining—just ask any young person. If Google continues to re-invent itself, it may hang in there. Microsoft and Apple, although they have brought new devices and software to market in recent years, are still basically doing computer-type stuff; they are adapting what they did into new products, which isn’t the same as re-envisioning the world. Apple without Steve Jobs isn’t the same and Microsoft lost Bill Gates. New visionary leaders will come to the fore.”
An information science professional based in Ohio responded, “I’m not sure Facebook will end up as the tool we use for connection. I have already seen the trend that younger users are moving away from Facebook. Other tools may take its place if that trend continues. Computer makers will be powerful so long as they innovate. Apple has so far kept up the pace. Microsoft, not so much. Ordering online from Amazon appears to be the wave of the future, too.”
An information science professional commented, “The most powerful Internet-leveraging and Internet-influencing corporations of 2025 will be powerful because they are all-encompassing, reaching many different aspects of personal, cultural, and corporate environments. In my dreams, these companies will also blur the line even further than current corporations/individuals (Bill and Melinda Gates, for example) between business/profit and humanitarian work.”
An information science professional responded, “The socialistic attitude by the current administration toward business in the US today is killing how US-based companies can expand, create, rejuvenate, or innovate. Innovation will occur in less-regulated counties that immediately steal US-created concepts. Speed in getting a product to market with an attractive price point will be key. Also, convenience for the consumer.”
A self-employed attorney wrote, “So long as Apple continues to innovate, it will be increasingly important. It has shifted the music market and the phone market. Amazon will continue to have influence because that is where all the money is. Facebook is nearing its maturation. Early adopters loved the freedom, coolness, and lack of advertising. As more mature users adopted it, it lost its coolness caché, driving younger people away. Then, as marketers noticed that Facebook’s users are those with money, the marketing overtook the actual social experience. Once that happens and the social experience dwindles, the users and market dry up, both going elsewhere. The problem with Facebook being abandoned is that a user must retrieve all of his data before it is permanently lost. After all, it is a diary of sorts. Google is interesting. It must find a way to capture the visualness of YouTube. While you can find just about anything on Google, it is also not keeping pace with the Internet. But that often happens. You have no money, you take risks. Those risks bring you money. You don’t want to lose money, so you stop taking risks, and innovation dies. Microsoft. Once someone puts out a good office suite of products that is easy to learn, Microsoft is dead. Yes, it has its operating systems, but, as things become more and more intuitive, Microsoft will become less and less relevant.”
A technology coordinator replied, ” Google continues to be such an innovator with new ideas; I don’t see this happening with Facebook or Microsoft. The powerful Web companies of 2025 will be the ones that continue to innovate in many ways, not just as a single-product company.”
A retired educational technologies specialist commented, “Unless companies continue to understand the market of human need or interest and be innovative, any company will fail. Their current status and influence is not relevant if they stagnate. Being able to predict the market and human need or interest is the unknown. If they can predict that and find the correct market, then they can have an impact on all aspects of life.”
An Internet citizen wrote, “Amazon starting same-day delivery will be so much better than any in-store experience. You can’t get customer reviews alongside the product in stores. Manufacturers will need to step up their game and spend more time in the testing phases of production.”
An information science professional at a major US school of medicine commented, “I have no idea, to be perfectly honest. By 2025 one would think there would be new names on this list. Unless Microsoft does something radical, it might be less important in the future. Google might also be hitting its limits as the nature of search changes for the web. Apple and Amazon—how long does a home run streak last? Hard to say.”
An attorney working on digital issues for the federal government commented, “My best guess is that there will be many, many new entrants and that none of the existing behemoths will be in the picture in their present form.”
An Internet user wrote, “The most powerful firms are not yet existent. Their impact will depend on the humanity of their creators.”
An information science professional replied, “All businesses rise and fall. The ones that will be important in 2025 are those we haven’t seen yet. They will be group projects brought about by the improvements in communication.”
A self-employed public policy consultant wrote, “I’m not sure which the most powerful Internet firms will be, but I doubt it will be Amazon or Apple. They are both companies that are essentially retail, and it’s hard for a retail company to corner the market for quite that long. Facebook or something like it will remain quite powerful and I don’t see any major competitors for Google right now. There will be other, newer companies that are also important.”
An anonymous respondent commented, “I use Amazon for many things—purchasing gifts, basic household supplies, watching movies and TV shows. More than anything else, it pervades many aspects of my life. Others (Google, Apple) are companies I interact with regularly, but not for as wide a variety of purposes. Microsoft is a necessary evil (I have to use MS Office tools) but the company is like a dinosaur. Changes are made to software that clearly have been made by people who don’t use the tools.”
An information science professional at large, public Research I university responded, “Facebook will start to diminish as younger users jump ship and head to other venues such as Tumblr and Snapchat. The young still want anonymity, and they get it using these, unlike with Facebook. The failure of the Surface tablet by Microsoft has signaled the beginning of the end.”
An activist Internet user replied, “The companies that will leverage the most power will be those willing and able to continue to innovate, allowing employees the opportunity to work beyond strict employment structures on creative enterprises. I think the companies that are currently doing the best job with this are Amazon and Google. Although Microsoft and Apple have been innovators in the past, their degree of innovation seems to lag beyond the other key players. Other US and international firms with new innovative ideas could be just as influential if products are developed that meet the needs of users.”
The director of a library wrote, “Google will become dominant. It is already involved in everything and it has the data needed to be in control. The US will no longer be the major world player.”
An information science professional replied, “Online shopping will continue to grow. I like Facebook and hope that something continues to allow the connections to my friends around the country. I would like to see political information (candidates, issues on the ballot) and even elections held online. Education will continue to grow online. It would be great if rural K-12 schools could tap into more advanced courses that way. They may have too few students interested to hire their own teacher, but the students could learn via computer. Higher education will continue to provide degrees online. I would like to see more online health care. Right now, my most pressing need is a simple email to my doctor’s office. I’d love to not have to go see the doctor in person while I’m supposed to be working. Medical devices are becoming computerized and I’d like to see that continue.”
An information science professional wrote, “The companies that will be the most influential in 2025 are probably not yet founded, or are just in the start-up stage. Consider the scene in 2003 compared to today; Amazon, Apple, Google, and Microsoft were around, but hadn’t yet introduced the landmark products that make them the colossi they are today. I do think social networking will continue to be a massive portion of people’s Internet life; whether it’s Facebook or the next big thing remains to be seen. I can see sites liked LinkedIn becoming more integral to the human resources field, and I can see social networking being used that much more for marketing purposes.”
An information science professional responded, “Amazon will be more important since they are willing to take the most risks compared to the rest of the giants. Facebook will be less important because it already is less important than it was even two years ago. Apple will be less important mainly for two reasons: the competition has learned from it enough to catch up and the loss of Steve Jobs, its innovator. Google will stay the same, still successful but too many failures to really make much headway. Microsoft will stay the same because of its change of leadership and investments. Other US firms will stay the same, mainly to keep up with all of the non-US firms, which will be where most of the innovations come from.”
A digital information specialist for a nonprofit organization, replied, “People will always need stuff, and Amazon is doing their best to buy up little companies to keep themselves on the top of the pile. Apple and Microsoft will have to evolve to keep up, Apple is very narrow in their products, Microsoft is a little more diverse, but both will need to really add to their portfolios. Facebook will be replaced by some new social media, and there will be a mass shift to the new darling of the industry. Google is trying to hold on to its spot, but it has become a pariah, too big for its britches and tracking too much personal information. I don’t know how the US firms will advance, but I’m sure other countries will start leading the way.”
A PhD, organizational consultant and researcher, and adjunct graduate school professor replied, “Well if Amazon doesn’t stop it will become the most widely used access point for consumer goods of all types. But competitors will emerge. Maybe all that mall and storefront space will be turned into natural habitat, ha-ha. It is my first thought that the most powerful Internet-leveraging corporations will not be in the US but Asia. I do think this might have the very positive effect of making borders porous across continents and countries, and of enabling individuals and corporate/policy making groups to view others with more connectivity and compassion and less arrogance and judgment.”
An information science professional wrote, “Things change quickly. Already I see people moving away from Facebook.”
An information science professional responded, “The companies that work with greater development of devices used over the Internet will greatly wield influence. The social media of Facebook is just a temporary phase that will likely be phased out with new developments. The quest for information and easier ways to complete tasks will likely be more useful and have staying power.”
An information science professional wrote, “Non-US countries will catch up in the area of individual innovation and the ability for abstract thought and more and more countries will surpass the US in educational achievement in areas that matter to commerce.”
An information science professional wrote, “Money to adopt the new technologies and vision to implement and market those products will be crucial to survival of the above companies. Amazon and Google seem to have the money and will to try new things. The other firms will need new leadership with vision, guts and luck to try the right new thing. Some will end up being Beta dealers while others will be the VHS, but even those will go be the wayside unless they adapt.”
An anonymous respondent replied, “The top four listed are used for search, ecommerce, and content consumption to one degree or other. I am not sure if Facebook will maintain its current position in the future, but assuming it does, it is trying to put itself everywhere and make itself unavoidable. Microsoft is trying to maintain its position but has been slipping and may not regain its past prominence. Other firms are niche players in comparison (though possibly dominant in their own countries). It seems that much of what we do on most of our devices, will come through interacting with one of these companies (if not now, then eventually). We may have to choose the lesser evils, or we may all have to interact with all of these. These companies will know almost everything about us, more than we know about ourselves, and will try to manipulate us for the benefit of advertisers. The information we have access to, which influences our decision-making and worldview will probably be filtered in order to further that. Electronic medical records are already increasing everywhere and will become standard—records from different doctors/hospital systems will probably become interactive or combined. Online voting will be put into place, with even more finely targeted political campaigning. Small businesses will need to be more interactive than most are today, with real websites, ecommerce capabilities, and quick responses to digital communications.”
An information science professional wrote, “Amazon will likely face antitrust legal problems in the near future. Apple was a one-trick pony that relied too much on Steve Jobs. It has no future without him. People will soon lose interest in Facebook and it will have become a fad. Many other people will leave Facebook for privacy concerns. Google will continue to face antitrust legal problems in the near future. In addition, people will leave Google’s services because it is too intrusive on people’s privacy for products that are just ‘good enough’ compared to the competition’s products. Microsoft has already gone through antitrust woes. Though it does not currently have the same ‘cool’ factor as Apple or Google, it is actually much more innovative than either of them. The recent reimagining of Windows 8 as a universal platform with an interface that is usable on every type of device (servers, destktops, tablets, phones, game consoles) will position it very well for the future. There will be other US firms that emerge as well. There will be many Israeli firms that come to the fore, as that nation will transition from being a start-up nation to a nation where the start-ups become major corporations of their own rather than being sold to larger companies for short-term profit.”
An information science professional wrote, “The most powerful Internet-leveraging and Internet-influencing corporation probably hasn’t been founded yet.”
An information science professional wrote, “Facebook will evolve, but will ultimately be displaced with the next new thing. Perhaps we old folks will hang on to it for a while, but youngsters are already on to new virtual spaces. I can’t predict the future of any of these mega-tech companies. It comes down to leadership and vision.”
An information science professional wrote, “Amazon is almost to the point of overreaching, and I believe it will do so in the next 10 years. The Facebook-using population is aging, and younger users are moving to other platforms. As long as Apple and Google continue to innovate, they will stay relevant for at least 10 more years, although they may not last much longer.”
An information science professional wrote, “Amazon and Google will continue to dominate the market, and have shown that they are looking for ways to expand into new territory. The question remains whether these ventures (drone delivery, Google Glass, etc.) will be successful. I think there is room in the market for new players, but I would expect some non-US firms to start becoming bigger players.”
An information science professional wrote, “The future seems more to be in applications and programs as opposed to hardware. I don’t know about the rest of it.”
A research and analytics director for a top consultancy, replied, “The most important are not listed here, and probably are in the incubation process by now. Most of the influencing companies will come from emerging countries, especially from Asia. There will be more development of portable and unique devices. Shopping and consumption will always be at the top of the list of what people must do, so all online retailers will play important roles in our future, if they get the point of evolution and what people will be demanding and needing. Amazon is a good example of a company that is continously changing, improving, and leading people to fill their needs. Google will continue to evolve by buying or integrating with other companies, and with its focus on consumer experiences. Facebook will be replaced by others as number-one because people like to change every 10 years. Microsoft and Apple will continue with developments, but the real innovation will come from satellite companies, smaller, quicker, and adventurous.”
A university professor based in Ohio wrote, “Facebook is like an out-of-control octopus, exploiting people’s participation and private information. Because people enroll voluntarily, fewer regulations can be applied to them. It acts as though it is unstoppable, and it may well prove to be so. Google, too, is aggregating too much personal data with too few regulations. Amazon seems to be somewhat more respectful of the data and information it has access to, though that could certainly change.”
An anonymous respondent commented, “The public is fickle. If a company survives long enough to be on top, they survive long enough to become a villain.”
A retired Information science professional commented, “Facebook will become too cumbersome and intrusive or something new will come along. Apple will finally out-price itself and not continue to improve upon itself. Unfortunately Amazon will probably still be there even though I would rather it became less important. Google will also have a large presence. Microsoft will have to reinvent itself to remain one of the big players. Other US firms will come and go. Unless one of them pulls a Google to advance they will primarily be a spur to Google to keep evolving. Non-US firms are the dark horses and may play even more of a role than the US firms. Because US news organizations do not do much global reporting we often don’t hear about foreign developments.”
An information science professional wrote, “The corporations will try to end any kind of human relations and make us ‘zombies’ of the market. Read Feed by M. T. Anderson.”
A writer responded, “Amazon probably has staying power because it is so efficient at filling consumer needs (those 80%) and getting the goods out quickly. Apple has innovation going for it, but not it another Steve Jobs comes around. Time will tell. Facebook is likely here to stay unless a more-innovative social media giant diverts the masses—a real possibility. Nothing is more constant than change.”
A senior systems administrator replied, “There will be a significant backlash against our increasingly online-all-the-time lifestyles, and at least one company will capitalize on applications to control one’s online presence. That being said, I still believe, and welcome, that the Internet will continue to embed itself into our daily lives more and more pervasively.”
A self-employed writer and editor wrote, “We can’t imagine what it will be like—honestly. Remember flying cars in the ’70s? Change will happen in the ways we least can predict. A phone in my pocket, don’t be silly! Now drink your Tang sonny-boy.”
An information science professional wrote, “As smaller businesses fail, Amazon will capture even more market share (it is reliable and offers items that can’t be purchased easily elsewhere). Facebook will eventually go the way of Myspace, as all social networking sites do.”
A quality analyst who works for a major Internet company commented, “Companies are victims of past biases and attitudes, particularly as innovative young management ages. Microsoft is a fine example, without a breakthrough product in more than a decade. Google’s willingness to foist alpha-test software on the world will result in its demise. Only Amazon is exploiting a business model that will allow five years or more of increasing productivity.”
An information science professional based in Virginia responded, “The successes will be the ones on the list and maybe Oracle, since Java runs everything.”
An information science professional wrote, “Things fall apart. The center cannot hold. Nothing stays on top forever.”
A post-doctoral researcher in mechanical engineering commented, “Amazon will grow in power just because it offers so many items and it is trying to be the Walmart of the Internet. I don’t like this idea because it pushes other businesses out, thus enabling Amazon to start gauging customers, as well as the fact that they have serious OSHA violations in their warehouses, which is why I personally will never patronize them. The emphasis in other countries on education will yield more educated people that will in turn give rise to more successful Internet companies. This will be dependent on other countries being more open to innovation, as in the US. Google and Apple and Microsoft will stay the same because they don’t seem to be a passing fad and they offer tangible products, further they have a track record. Facebook: I just don’t see the staying power.”
The CEO of a technology company replied, “The most powerful will be Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Facebook. These companies will establish new ways of communicating, interacting with products and services, purchasing items, engaging political activism, providing access to information and educational resources, and they will improve the quality of life for a larger population by 2025.”
A self-employed data journalist and Web developer replied, “Amazon and Google will be the most important and powerful technology companies by 2025. More and more consumers are turning to Amazon, Netflix, and other streaming-video services to watch television shows and original series on many different types of devices and on their own time schedule. Amazon is also now starting to create original video series and digital content much like Netflix. Amazon also provides a wide range of Web and mobile development services via Amazon Web Services. Google’s acquisition of YouTube has allowed Google to influence how consumers view and share video content. Google also provides a wide range of Web- and mobile-development tools as well as technology products that are widely used such as Gmail, Google Drive, etc. Both Amazon and Google are companies that are influencing the greater trend of merging print media with TV, cable, and the Internet to create massive multimedia news platforms. Both companies will have great influence and power in how consumers use the Internet, consume video, television, get their news and more by 2025.”
A self-employed information consultant/developer, responded, “The democratization of invention—through efforts like Quirky, systems that allow for 3D printing of objects, open-source software and hardware, and the creation of many more companies built around ideas, in the absence of traditional jobs that come with a paycheck—will make large behemoth companies built around technologies like computers and operating systems less important, possibly far less important, than they are now. Amazon will have competition from a vast, interconnected peer-to-peer marketplace made possible by micropayments and alternative currencies, but it will still be around. Apple and Microsoft will not be history, but they will be less gigantic in the tech landscape than they are now. Facebook will be displaced by some other service, and/or many other services, possibly ones that are more mobile in orientation. I don’t see the influence of US firms waning, but I do see an increase in the importance/reach of non-US firms. The creative classes of China and India are still like sleeping giants, but will one day be powerhouses like Silicon Valley is today.”
A retiree replied, “There will be some new startups that we haven’t even imagine now that will come on the market in the next few years—we aren’t through growing.”
A retired engineer and automation developer wrote, “Breakthroughs are by nature unknowable.”
A professor teaching in a university graduate program commented, “Apple and Microsoft may be leveling off in terms of growing influence—maybe not. Google and Amazon seem to be setting the stage for diversifying as much as they can and taking over small companies with technologies they can add to their current offerings. Facebook is already on its way out. I am not sure what will happen with other US firms. The foreign market will continue to be the competition for the big US conglomerates.”
The executive director of a non-profit community service organization commented, “Amazon and Apple seem to be able to think outside the box, have ample resources, and have attracted enough creative people that it seems reasonable they will expand their influence and resources. Others are fly in the night and will likely crumble with a major upset in their structure.”
A database configuration specialist and risk assessment analyst responded, “Facebook provided a uniform, ‘fairly easy’ for non-technical people way to ‘join’ the Internet; but it actually provides a fairly false and superficial level of connectivity. I don’t like the idea of one, uniform interface to the Internet. More successful interfaces to the Internet should be easier to individually manage for a personal touch, rather than the uniformity of Facebook. Interlanguage communications will hopefully enable better understanding among different people. Google has provided one of the greatest resources to humans since the actual printing press; the digitized books of hundreds of great libraries of all ages—I can read Icelandic fairy tales in Icelandic, if I want. It did this comprehensively instead of only digitizing the popular books or the ones that get the most ‘likes.’ This is the paradigm I’d like to see for future Internet. Personalized.”
A self-employed professional responded, “Google is positioning itself to be a major power in the world. Apple and Microsoft are creating some tools for consumers but not in the same way. Unless some new player we aren’t aware of steps in, Google may own us all. I only hope that it wants to improve education for the masses and keep us all healthy and happy. As with all totalitarian systems, things will run more smoothly but there will be less freedom of choice.”
An information science professional wrote, “Google and Amazon will be the most-influential companies. They are investing in infrastructure and technology outside their current areas of expertise. Both Apple and Microsoft will be move to being behind-the-scenes players such as IBM or Intel are today. Shaping things but not the most visible movers and shakers. There may be up-and-coming firms both inside the US and outside that will be the next Facebook or Twitter but they cannot currently be identified.”
An information science professional replied, “Mobile will become the most important means of connection worldwide.”
An information science professional based in Berkeley, California, wrote, “Unknown players will have a huge impact on the ways we live over the next 12 years. If I consider where the companies on the list were in 2001 it’s hard to not see where they will be in 12 years. Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon have over this time been adept at shifting with the markets. They have not had giant swings up or down and I imagine they will continue in the same vein. Facebook and Google, however seem unlikely to stay on this meteoric growth pattern.”
An information science professional responded, “Amazon and Google continue to lead in being the ‘everything’ brands—I see Amazon making progress in all areas from content creation to delivery of product. Apple will still be important but seems to have lost a bit of its edge. Microsoft is holding on, but unless it comes up with something soon, I don’t see it continuing to rule the world. I know that there is someone or some business out there that is waiting to take off that will be the next challenger.”
An information science professional wrote, “Only if someone truly evil takes over Google, will there be big problems.”
The manager of a non-profit hospital commented, “Google is well-respected and often-turned-to and likely will be in the future. Impact seems big due to reference and discussing where inforomation is gathered.”
An information science professional in Alaska replied, A”mazon has such a huge customer base and such fantastic service that already no one can imagine life without it. Google is simple to use and reliable. People just like it, and I think they will continue to like it for a long time. Microsoft will always be on the cutting edge because its people think light years ahead of the rest of us.”
An information science professional in rural eastern Washington State said, “They really will be international in scope. Singapore, South Korea, European nations, Africa (doing really interesting things will mobile phones and payments) are well ahead of the US curve, and they will increasingly take a dominant role in US tech.”
A former executive at major technology company, now a social entrepreneur, responded, “It is difficult for large companies to sustain their dominance which is why this list may represent mostly less important factors than new companies that are not on the list. Also, this list leaves off the social and non-profit enterprises that will have increasing influence on and, in part, due to the Internet.”
An information science professional responded, “There is so much happening in non-Western countries that people in the US are just completely blind to. I don’t feel like I have a good sense of how this might start to impact Western culture. One interesting thing about Internet culture is that its vastness encourages people to restrict themselves to familiar areas and communities—I wonder if that might not change with increasing globalization. (It’s already happening with Japanese cat videos!) Google and Amazon will either take everything over or stumble horribly, but they are so ubiquitous it would be very hard for a competitor to come along and be as monolithic as they are in social/sales. Twitter and Instagram will chip away at things, but, as with apps, compartmentalization becomes less attractive because of its silo affect on interactions. Too many passwords!”
An information science professional responded, “Google and Amazon clearly want to take over the world. Microsoft would like to but is too incompetent. I hate all three of them but am forced to use their tools to a greater or lesser degree.”
The director of finance for a company commented, “In 2025 success will be found in tools that eliminate driving to procure supplies and services. Many shopping malls and big-box stores will close. Health care records will be centrally available. Human connection is threatened since it is already a problem. If you take a walk in a shopping mall 50% of the people have their noses buried in a cell phone looking at nonsense. Entertainment such as television will move 100% to the Internet. The power of the incumbent providers will be diminished.”
An information science professional responded, “The companies that integrate all aspects—human connection, commerce, politics/civic life, education, health care— best with appropriate personal information security will succeed. Cybersecurity and tech support will become increasingly important. The companies or services that do that best will do well.”
A 75-year-old retiree and volunteer, formerly a business professional, commented, “Amazon seeks out Internet uses for its business—other firms will follow suit and possibly surpass Amazon. Apple and Microsoft race each other to be in the forefront of development. Good race! I think it will be difficult, but certainly not impossible, for other developers to join in.”
The project coordinator for an environmental consulting firm commented, “Facebook will fade as will Apple, but other more comprehensive service providers will grow.”
A volunteer and artist commented, “Amazon seems to have everything. People are staying at home—not going ‘shopping’ as much—and they they dont have to because they can order it online. I have never heard anyone I know complain about the service of Amazon—and this is critical. People ‘click’ on what they want. They want everything to be simple; complicate it and they wont come back. Microsoft is just hitting the education market again as K-12 goes global. There are new gadgets and software for the stay-at-home student. Apple competes with Microsoft for the schooling of kids. People will still put their money into their kids. Teachers will be eliminated more and more; one teacher online can teach thousands. The only thing really keeping libraries open is the young parent or grandparent who still believes that reading in a social setting is important to a child. By middle school some parents feel the child can learn off a computer yet they use schools as a babysitter.”
An information science professional responded, “Firms will fill niches of need. And they will come and go along with market forces.”
A freelance marketing and communications professional, replied, “Social media will evolve and Facebook will become obsolete. Amazon and Google do a fantastic job of keeping up with advances and adapting to the ever-changing marketplace. Everything else will sink or swim.”
An information science professional responded, “It is the nature of large companies to get over-encumbered with their own internal ‘stuff,’ right? So unless a company like Amazon or Facebook can find ways to stay alive and vibrant and still creative, it is not going to maintain its hold and new companies taking risks and trying new things will take its place eventually. It’s normal and natural.”
An associate professor at York College responded, “As world demographics shift, I think it’s reasonable to assume non-US firms will gain power and importance. I’d place weak bets that Amazon and Google might still be colossi—but I’m not sure I’d bet on anyone else. A lot of companies from 10 years ago are either defunct or mere shadows of their former selves.”
An information science professional commented, “Amazon has proven to be a powerful player in Internet commerce in many fields and continues to diversify, especially in the realm of eBooks and eReaders. Apple has been a strong innovator but hasn’t come up with a truly original concept since the iPad. Facebook’s changing policies upset people, and younger people have turned away from it. Google is involved in a lot of projects, some better publicized than others, and has a lot of tricks up its sleeve. Microsoft has lagged behind in innovation and is struggling to catch up with Apple.”
An information science professional commented, “Most all commerce will be online as will education. We will vote online.”
The digital editor for a very large media organization responded, “Amazon has stepped up its commerce to sell and deliver not only its own products but those of other merchants. Paypal will get bigger, too. Google is definitely on an upswing with innovation by looking at our lives and how we live them, thus finding ways of improving what we already do.”
A media agency strategist replied, “Influence will move from device-centric to system-centric, so Apple/Microsoft will decline, Facebook will fade away, and Google will continue and Amazon will be portal distributor of all thing. Influence will move to Brazil, Russia, India, China from the US.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, “Google will continue to expand into real-world applications (as opposed to online services). We might not see the direct influence, but it will be there in many areas.”
An Information science professional based in Delaware wrote, “Facebook will be replaced the by the ‘next thing,’ whatever that happens to be. I don’t know that any one company may command the marketplace, as everyone seems to have their own favorites for products and there is so much overlap in tech products.”
A self-employed interactive communications specialist for a news organization commented, “Amazon and Google (as well as some other US firms like Samsung) are at the top of innovation for looking outside of their current needs and uses. From drones to driverless cars to curved glass, none of which is needed to further the development of any of these companies, they continue to look beyond what society is asking of them to what they think we will need and where we are going. Certainly they already change connection in the pursuit of commerce, but I see them getting more involved in politics to shape policy in their favor—whether they use this to improve quality of life is to be seen. And someone will rise up as leaders in education as they realize that if we don’t improve American education, we don’t great innovators and entrepreneurs. And health care has many options for vast leaps in technology.”
A student at the University of Washington wrote, “Google is, hands-down, the most influential and progressive company in the world right now. With self-driving cars and Google Glass they are pushing the boundaries of technology and have the potential to do so in all fields. Facebook has taught us nothing if not the influence of social networking. I doubt this will change.”
A director of university communications at a major university in Colorado responded, “There may be players out there that now are small, not yet in existence, or which we generally know less about their actual roles in the functionality of communication equipment, networks, delivery.”
A professional writer said, “New US firms will emerge and create new products and markets. It’s one of our great strengths.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, “I worry about the loss of Net Neutrality and what the ‘gatekeepers’ will do.”
A law school professor teaching in the areas of research and analysis replied, “Non-US technology companies should begin the rise to the top in a way similar to the rise of the Japanese auto companies in the late ’60s and early ’70s. They have a foundation to build on and the expertise (mostly gained in American universities and tech companies) to present the next level of information control. Google and Apple have enough of a lead to continue to maintain it. Social media will fall slowly as the current generation becomes less enthralled in having everything known about them.”
An anonymous respondent commented, “With the NSA backdoors recently found in American technology products, I see US technology declining in worldwide markets unless something changes vastly.”
An information science professional based in Florida responded, “Technology and the Internet will prevail. Google will rise in sales and data analytics. Apple in providing seamless technology that people love.”
A media distribution professional based in New Jersey replied, “The most powerful corporations will be those that control the search engines and map every individual’s use of the internet. Hardware manufactures may change, social media sites will come in and out of fashion and be very linked to age groups, Amazon may come or go but will remain a giant store and a different store might fill its niche. The power will be with those who have access to every stroke of the keyboard and every click of my Internet life.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, “New innovations will move new companies into the limelight. I don’t know exactly what those companies will be but I hope that the Internet will bring more equality to everyone’s life. Soon the fossil fuel leaders will fall by the wayside; there will be new emerging technologies.”
A human factors professional and educator and member of ACM SIGCHI, responded, “Amazon has been very clever about finding ways to extend its products and services and in leveraging the work of other more research-oriented companies. Apple is really totally unpredictable—it may be more influential or less. Can it produce another iPod/iPhone? Google does keep trying to do novel things but it is not so good at both identifying opportunities and then working on them until the ‘final’ product fits a product need. Microsoft is slow to innovate and often glitchy initially but does a better job than most at working out the bugs. Facebook seems to be losing its young audience, as did other social networking sites before it. While US firms can build on what is currently the strength of its university research foundation, my guess would be that sheer numbers weigh in on international growth.”
An anonymous survey participant wrote, “Of all the commercial corporations, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft seem to be the firm leaders of technology over the past years and I expect they will remain so. Amazon’s Internet site evolves quickly, and offers an amazing array of goods and services. Its new tablet and membership offers can’t be beat. Apple and Microsoft have always been the leaders in Internet technology and I expect will always be around in some shape or form, possibly combined. Healthcare is rapidly connecting with technology and soon to be interfered with by government for better or worse. I’m hoping to see education become a real concern to my fellow citizens and eventually force the government and most colleges out of the process. With the dawning of some fantastic intervention education should become easier to receive and college needs better met and far less expensive due to technology. Say goodbye to those hundreds of dollars spent on textbooks and to silly course requirements.”
An attorney and partner in private law firm replied, “The most powerful will be those who can successfully create and implement embedded devices. Google, Apple, and currently non-existent companies will lead that effort.”
An information science professional wrote, “Apple and Amazon have reached their peak, and I feel fairly certain that Facebook has. The next big innovator will be from outside the US.”
A media distribution professional responded, “Amazon already practices concierge as does Facebook, but Facebook not as well. Apple will absorb all the Droid companies so it will rule the devices and access with their monopoly.”
A metadata librarian based in a large US metropolitan area commented, “Facebook and Apple will be less important; Facebook, because humans seem to go on to the Next Big Thing (how long did MySpace last?) and Apple because it lost its founder. Google will have more competition, rendering it less important, too. Amazon and Microsoft will stay the same. Microsoft, because it was always more corporately structured than Apple, and not so driven by a single individual. Amazon because people will always want to buy things and it seems to have a creativity pipeline that should be valid for another 10 years at least. “
An anonymous respondent wrote, “I believe there is a medical startup out there right now that will be a new colossus in Internet-leveraging because as the population ages and Americans look more deeply into health care costs and solutions, creative individuals and companies will devise responses to the needs those problems will exhibit. I also think Massive Open Online Courses or virtual learning will have further impact on higher education because spiraling costs make the old college paradigm and the increasingly complex world of work less and less compatible.”
An information science professional in Colorado commented, “With all of the open source work already being done and the decrease in the cost of electronics, the companies that will thrive will offer competitive (or free) products and services, making their money from products and services that are unique or in high demand in the future.”
An information science professional replied, “Apple seems to have a hand on the device and tablets and continue to be innovative. Google has entered the device market and seems to be in all of the other popular online arenas as well. The company that comes up with the next cool device will become more important in the future. I still think there is innovation in the United States.”
An anonymous survey participant wrote, “Google offers many promising technologies for the future, always advancing and innovating. With its control and insight it doesn’t occur to me how it could fall behind.”
To read full official survey analysis, please click here.
To read credited responses to the report, please click here.