Veteran political analyst Charles Cook spoke to members of the media, students and faculty during a lunch meeting Wednesday, Sept. 6 on campus. The meeting was held in the Elon University Poll lab, located in the Gray Pavilion.
Cook believes the upcoming midterm elections will not be encouraging for the Republican Party. “If you’re a Republican, you’ve been on offense on 2002 and 2004,” Cook said. “Well, guess what? This is a cycle where they’re going to be on defense.”
Cook cited several factors he believes will hurt Republican candidates at the polls this November. His polling organization, The Cook Political Report, recently asked voters this question: “Do you think the country is headed in the right direction or is on the wrong track?” The sample, taken Aug. 25-27, showed 28 percent said the country is on the right path, while 64 percent believe it is on the wrong track. For Republicans, “those are ugly numbers,” Cook said.
Cook also said historical evidence shows that when Congress’ job approval rating is above 40 percent, there is usually a net change of about 15 Congressional seats. But when the rating is below 40 percent, the net change is 29 seats. Most recent polls show Congress’ job approval rating is below 30 percent.
Cook said the Republicans must continue to try to build a case that the war on terror and the war in Iraq are related to have a chance in November’s elections.
“In 2002, there was, in the public mind, a strong connection between the war on terror and the war in Iraq,” Cook said. “Now, there seems to be little connection, but it’s the only card the Republicans have got and they have to play it.”
Cook is one of the nation’s leading authorities on U.S. elections and a frequent guest on major network news shows. He has appeared on major network shows, including NBC’s “Meet the Press,” ABC’s “This Week” and “Nightline,” and “CBS Evening News.” He has also served as an election night analyst for CBS and NBC.