The senior economics major explores if national anthem protests played a role in declining NFL television ratings.
Name: Judah Brown I ’19
Major: Economics
Minor: Accounting
Faculty mentor: Brandon Sheridan, assistant professor of economics
Title of research: The Impact of National Anthem Protests on National Football League Television Ratings
Abstract:
This research determines how much, if any, of the recent decline in the National Football League's (NFL) television ratings can be attributed to national anthem protests inspired by Colin Kaepernick. Much of the existing research on sports (i.e., association football, American football, and baseball) and television ratings identify factors such as team quality, “star power” of players, and amount of scoring as reliable predictors for ratings. However, none of the existing research includes protests as a potential factor.
The data analyzed includes aggregate Nielsen ratings and streaming statistics for the four NFL seasons between 2014 and 2017, which covers the two years before and the first two years of the protests. In addition to the protests, variables analyzed include five general categories of demand determinants for sports—preferences, price, quality of viewing, characteristics of the contest, and supply capacity. These variables were then analyzed in a series of ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression models. Results indicate that protests do contribute to the decline in NFL TV ratings, but their impact is not as consequential as other variables such as the team's record or the time slot in which the game is played. This research identifies and fills a gap in economic knowledge, and sheds light on the possible connection between economic rationale and the effectiveness, or even utilization, of social protest.
In other words:
NFL ratings have been declining year over year, but the Colin Kaepernick-inspired protests provide a convenient scapegoat for the league to blame. This research determines whether viewers have stopped watching NFL broadcasts because of the protests. Results indicate that a portion of the decline in ratings can be attributed to protests, but the decrease is insignificant (less than one percent of total viewership).
Explanation of study/potential impact of findings:
NFL owners and players must sign a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) in 2020. A number of owners are opposed to protests; over the summer of 2018, the league enacted a policy requiring players to either stand for the anthem or stay in the locker room (kneeling would result in a fine), but that policy was rescinded before the 2018 season began. Tension over the anthem policy could result in the league’s first player lockout since 2011.
Broadcasting networks also hold some influence in the league’s decision, as the NFL holds multi-million- and billion-dollar contracts with networks such as NBC and ESPN. For the 2018 season, ESPN, Fox Sports, and CBS announced that they would not broadcast the anthem live except for “special” broadcasts like Thanksgiving Day games.
Why did you pick this topic? How did you get started?
I was looking for a way to connect my personal interests with my field of study. With the immediacy and unprecedented nature of the anthem protests, I found a field that I could be a pioneer in.
My focus was originally on the connection between anthem protests and ticket sales, but following discussions with Dr. Sheridan and my then-academic advisor, Dr. Bednar, I switched my data focus to television ratings because it was more accessible.
How has your mentor impacted you/your research process?
My research mentor, Dr. Sheridan, has provided invaluable insight throughout the research process. Every time I complete a new section of the project, whether it be data collection, a presentation, or a draft, he has used his field experience to help fine-tune my work through comments, suggestions, and questions. He and I have also created a timeline for the project and established expectations, and he has held me accountable for my work. As a result, my final product has a level of polish that I would not have attained by myself.